Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100
797
2.2kṀ4.2m
2101
13%
chance
This market will resolve to no if AI has not wiped out humanity by the year 2100. If AI has wiped out humanity, the market resolution is on them. I made this bet with @tomchivers on the Browser Bets YouTube show. You can join in here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ak6HxFREPyc&t=1s
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2mo

what the hell was happening in June 2023? 💀

8mo

Google allows the human brain not to have to memorize or remember. AI allows the human brain not to have to learn or think. What will be the repercussions by 2100?

sold Ṁ386 YES8mo

@Harlan This doesn't reflect a change in my predictions, I just don't think that prediction markets are actually useful for predicting human extinction, and I want to use my mana for other things.

I think the only point of buying and holding YES shares in this market would be to have my opinion be represented, but I can actually just share my opinion for free: I am about 80% confident that AI will wipe out humanity before the year 2100.

7mo

80%! How does this affect the way you live?

6mo

@jdilla It’s made me think more carefully about questions like “should I have kids” and “should I save for retirement” but I think my personal answer is still yes to both of those things.

And it’s made me pursue a career path aimed at trying to budge that percentage down as much as possible.

8mo

How do you even collect on this bet? If humanity is wiped out I don’t think Manifold will be saved

8mo

Well that's eliezer's point below, if people decide to treat it as non epistemic not much we can do about it. The hope is that people will treat it as if they could collect so that we get a wisdom of crowds estimate

8mo
8mo

A lot of people here will be dead by 2100 anyway, so they won’t be able to reap their rewards either way

Withdrawing from this market (as I have the analogous market in 2030) since too many traders have decided to treat it as non-epistemic (trading in a way that reflects money not being worth anything if the world ends, rather than trading beliefs). This is not an evil or unlawful choice, but it means there's no point in watching my net worth fluctuate around my shares here.

@EliezerYudkowsky There's non-epistemic grounds to buy YES as well. In fact. for 2100 in particular, I would argue the non-epistemic trade is to be buying YES at 11%.

See Mira's magisterial treatment of the subject in this very comments section: https://manifold.markets/jdilla/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th#WHfX49qPw7c5MO7SELZR

@EliezerYudkowsky Is this how you still hold on to a high pdoom and tell yourself the crowd is really with you in spite of betting against you?

@TeddyWeverka Although suffering Keynesian Beauty Contest issues, I think these markets decrease the likelihood that the crowd genuinely thinks the P(doom) is tiny

predictedNO 1y

@MichaelWheatley taking profits already?

predictedYES 1y

@f proposed changes to loans mean that some people are looking to deleverage.

predictedNO 1y

@MartinRandall whats the proposed changes?

predictedYES 1y

@f last proposal from dev team was a 2x global max leverage cap. Probably won't happen in that form but still spooking some traders.

What the point of voting, if it resolve yes I will be dead...

predictedNO 1y

@ChristianJacques you could have an AI agent represent your rights here, likely enforced through some smart contract? who knows, maybe the mana helps the good AI’s win the war.

1y

Does "wipe out" imply killing or out-competition?

What if all of humanity voluntarily mind-uploads as in "I, Row-Boat"?

1y

@Snarflak Killing / extinction

1y

@JamesDillard So if AI uplifts all of humanity into the noosphere, this resolves to No?

1y

@Snarflak Not sure what the noosphere is so can’t comment. Will let you know when I see it!

predictedNO 1y

@JamesDillard Only biological humans count? What if all living humans are genetically engineered enough to be considered a separate species?

1y

@MaxMorehead Very much depends upon the specifics

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