Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100
22%
chance
This market will resolve to no if AI has not wiped out humanity by the year 2100. If AI has wiped out humanity, the market resolution is on them. I made this bet with @tomchivers on the Browser Bets YouTube show. You can join in here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ak6HxFREPyc&t=1s
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Writer avatar
Writer
is predicting YES at 24%
TimothyCurrie avatar
Timothy Currie
sold Ṁ23 of NO

So did it jump from 14% to 28% because of the meta AI winning at diplomacy (Human-level play in the game of Diplomacy by combining language models with strategic reasoning | Science) or is the "no" overvalued?

StevenK avatar
Steven
is predicting YES at 16%
Zardoru avatar
Zardoru
bought Ṁ10 of NO

I expect that with FTX down, there are much less money to be made advocating for AI safety.

TANSTAAFL avatar
TANSTAAFL
bought Ṁ1 of NO
I'm starting to think that the value of far horizon markets is in the relative movement, not the final outcome. This would work better if trading fees were reduced for longer markets to increase trading volume.
IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King
bought Ṁ100 of NO

@TANSTAAFL You now get 2% of your total investment back each day as a loan until that market resolves, so the opportunity cost of betting in a market of any length is effectively capped at around the same as a market that resolves in 6 months.

Yev avatar
Yev ✔️
bought Ṁ20 of YES
Use a loan to bet on YES. Either you win a lot of money when an AGI kills humanity, or you'll have to pay $20 in 2100 but you won't care about that because you'll be dead.
Rutger avatar
Rutger
bought Ṁ1 of NO
But then the correct strategy is trying to predict what everyone else will (predict that everyone else will) do, instead of trying to predict some real world event. If you have some brilliant insight into misaligned AI timelines you wouldn't be able to correct the market unless you can convince everyone else of your brilliant insight (at which point there is no need for the market).
TANSTAAFL avatar
TANSTAAFL
bought Ṁ1 of NO
To shorten the time horizon, you could word this as a poll: "Will the majority of bettors on this market think that AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100?" and only have it open for a month.
IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King
sold Ṁ17 of YES

@TANSTAAFL I've made some of those for various years in the future.

FunCube avatar
FunCube
bought Ṁ5 of YES
@Austin obviously they will put us in tanks and betting will all we be doing to predict the future for the new overloards! Then M$ will be the only thing that matters
Austin avatar
Austin
bought Ṁ5 of YES
This is the canonical problem market for "if I win, what good is my M$?" (Maybe our new robot overlords will see this bet and decide to kill me last)