Will I be old before I die?
10
73
1k
2049
72%
chance

These are strange days we're living in today.

Will I live to relive the days gone by?

Will I live to see the day the Pope gets high?

Tonight I'm gonna live for today.

Resolves YES if I'm alive when I'm 70yo.

Resolves NO otherwise.

death
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predicts NO

Living to see the day the pope gets high is now easier with generative AI art.

bought Ṁ55 of NO

Updating down based on the risk of high death non-extinction events.

how old are you now?

@Lauro 43-ish

I predict the 70 yo Martin will be unhappy that younger Martin gave them this market to resolve for a birthday present.

predicts YES

@MartinRandall Or happy for the reminder that they could easily have not made it to 70!

How are you measuring age?

  • Time since birth.

  • Time spent alive since birth. (e.g. subtracting any time spent cryonically preserved.)

  • Biological age. (How worn down your body is on a cellular level.)

  • Aesthetic age. (How old you look to other people).

@IsaacKing Should be time since birth. I'm not currently planning to be cryonically preserved as my brain contains unencrypted sensitive data. Biological and aesthetic age are too subjective.

I'm not sure at this time how I will resolve if I'm uploaded and experience time at a different rate, so there's some resolution risk there.

@MartinRandall What counts "you"?

@Yev a big philosophical question. If an identical copy is created then I hope the two copies will agree on which of us count as me for the purposes of this market.