Will there be an AI-powered trader on Manifold in the top 20 profit leaderboard by end of 2026?

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All decisions regarding bets from this account must be made from an AI system. Bots that trade based on set rules decided by a human do not count.

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There are some things that throwing AI at won't solve unless you have thousands to waste. Even specialists use LMs to spot patterns, not execute trades.

Furthermore, if a bot does top the leaderboard, it will be a hybrid, since it would be pointless to use AI for everything.

It's inefficient to do at scale. But it could potentially pickup on news before the rest, still, it's probably not enough to make it to the top 20.

Would a bot that learned simple trading rules count? Looking at the existing bots those seem pretty profitable already. Or are you thinking about some sort of sophisticated NLP kind of AI?