Will this market still exist in 2100? (Bet NO for signaling purposes) | Manifold

Will this market still exist in 2100? (Bet NO for signaling purposes)

Plus

26

Ṁ1365

2100

79%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This market, if it is still around, will resolve to YES in 2100. If you think that that won't happen, you can bet NO to signal that belief. This can't make you any mana (except from other people who bet NO after you), but it can show other people just how confident you are in your beliefs about the future.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

I’m pretty sure I’ll still be around, but if manifold doesn’t still have this market in 2100 I think it’s probably gone under and at that point mana will be worthless, so…

(betting NO) can't make you any mana

Literally false.

predicts YES

@MartinRandall Fixed

>> just how confident you are in your beliefs about the future

or just how short my investment horizon is

my friend the actuary seems to think I'm not likely to be around in 2100

It'll make me money if manifold changes their loan payout structure to payout a percent of expectation instead of cost basis, as I keep hoping they will! 😉

Related questions

Will this market still be open in 2026?

Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2035? (Experimental market structure; 90% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)

Will Manifold Markets still exist in 2040?

Will this market?

Will I be around to resolve this market in December 2027?

Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2035? (Experimental market structure; 99% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)

Will Manifold Markets still exist in a decade? (Jan 2, 2034)

Will I be able to resolve this market myself at the end of 2030?

Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2026? (Experimental market structure; 90% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)

Will Betdaq still exist and have active trading at the end of 2024?

Related questions

Will this market still be open in 2026?

Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2035? (Experimental market structure; 99% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)

Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2035? (Experimental market structure; 90% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)

Will Manifold Markets still exist in a decade? (Jan 2, 2034)

Will Manifold Markets still exist in 2040?

Will I be able to resolve this market myself at the end of 2030?

Will this market?

Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2026? (Experimental market structure; 90% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)

Will I be around to resolve this market in December 2027?

Will Betdaq still exist and have active trading at the end of 2024?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules