Will this market still exist in 2100? (Bet NO for signaling purposes) | Manifold

Will this market still exist in 2100? (Bet NO for signaling purposes)

20

126

Ṁ554

Ṁ390

2100

79%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This market, if it is still around, will resolve to YES in 2100. If you think that that won't happen, you can bet NO to signal that belief. This can't make you any mana (except from other people who bet NO after you), but it can show other people just how confident you are in your beliefs about the future.

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(betting NO) can't make you any mana

Literally false.

predicts YES

@MartinRandall Fixed

>> just how confident you are in your beliefs about the future

or just how short my investment horizon is

my friend the actuary seems to think I'm not likely to be around in 2100

bought Ṁ40 of NO

It'll make me money if manifold changes their loan payout structure to payout a percent of expectation instead of cost basis, as I keep hoping they will! 😉

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