If it's discovered that Jeanne Calment's record is false, this market resolves based on someone beating the originally stated record of 122 years and 164 days.
Brain emulations count real time only, not subjective time. Cryonic reanimations only count time spent with brain activity.
@LordWilmgaddark We'll have to wait, but not all the way till 2032, just until resurrection technology wouldn't suffice to break the record.
@tom Yes to both. Uploads count real time only, not subjective time. Cryonic reanimations only count time spent with brain activity.
@StephenMalina If that happens, I'll stick to the claimed record of 122 years and 164 days for the purposes of resolving this market. I've made a separate market for the other question:
There are 16 people who are currently alive and could reach that age before 2032:
2026-07-26: Lucile Randon, France
2029-08-15: María Branyas Morera, Spain
2029-09-06: Fusa Tatsumi, Japan
2030-04-20: Bessie Hendricks, US
2030-07-19: Edie Ceccarelli, US
2030-08-01: Kahoru Furuya, Japan
2030-11-03: Tomiko Itooka, Japan
2030-11-19: Inah Canabarro Lucas, Brazil
2030-11-30: Hazel Plummer, US
2030-12-01: Kimiko Ono, Japan
2031-05-08: Yasue Okai, Japan
2031-05-16: Hide Hamabe, Japan
2031-08-26: Shinobu Hayashi, Japan
2031-08-27: Annabelle Holblinger, US
2031-10-29: Shige Mineshiba, Canada
2031-11-07: Juan Vicente Pérez Mora, Venezuela
@Yev Branyas got COVID, and although she recovered, this probably drastically decreases her chances to reach the record age. Bessie Hendrix died.
Kahoru passed
Maria is the closest, but she still only has ~.08% chance of even making it to 120:
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html
Even assuming all dozen women left were Maria's age, they'd still only be ~1% actuarial odds any made it to 120, let alone ~122.5
@PatMyron lol, looks like you also voted in the wrong direction like me when I made the previous comment - that would mean the record is more likely to hold
@na_pewno thanks for letting me know, definitely bet in the wrong direction, definitely got confused by the question being "will nothing change?" rather than "will X happen?"