Calendar check: to beat 122 years and 164 days before 1 January 2032, someone born on or before about 20 July 1909 would have to be alive now. The oldest living person, Ethel Caterham, was born on 21 August 1909 and would reach the record only around 1 February 2032, a month after this resolves, and nobody older is documented. So on the current roster this resolves YES unless a previously undocumented supercentenarian surfaces, and the false-record clause does not change that. For why the ceiling has not moved in 29 years: past 105 the annual probability of death flattens at about 50% (Barbi et al., Science 2018), and no intervention has lowered that hazard in any mammal in a controlled trial. The first tests of whether a drug moves mortality hazard in a long-lived mammal that lives with us are the dog trials reading out around 2029 to 2031; TRIAD record with sources (mine): https://w0lph.github.io/k9/trials/triad-rapamycin.html

Test of Rapamycin in Aging Dogs (TRIAD): canine aging trial registry record

TRIAD is a parallel-group, double-masked, randomized, placebo-controlled, multicenter trial that will test whether rapamycin prolongs lifespan and improves healthspan metrics in healthy, middle-aged, large-breed dogs recruited from Dog Aging Project participants. The hypothesis is that a one-year co

If everyone who would be able to beat this record by 1 Jan 2032 dies, will the market resolve immediately to YES, or do we have to wait until 2032 to account for potential resurrection technology?

@LordWilmgaddark We'll have to wait, but not all the way till 2032, just until resurrection technology wouldn't suffice to break the record.

Would an uploaded person count, and would someone cryonically revived?

(My personal opinion is that uploading should count, and a revived person's age should only count time not spent in suspension)

@tom Yes to both. Uploads count real time only, not subjective time. Cryonic reanimations only count time spent with brain activity.

Even with AGI before 2032, this could resolve YES. Calment was a statistical outlier, and the next oldest people lived about 3 years less. So it is plausible that everyone on the list passes before the end of 2029.

How does this resolve if we get more evidence that Calment may have been a fraud?

@StephenMalina If that happens, I'll stick to the claimed record of 122 years and 164 days for the purposes of resolving this market. I've made a separate market for the other question:

There are 16 people who are currently alive and could reach that age before 2032:

1. 2026-07-26: Lucile Randon, France

2. 2029-08-15: María Branyas Morera, Spain

3. 2029-09-06: Fusa Tatsumi, Japan

4. 2030-04-20: Bessie Hendricks, US

5. 2030-07-19: Edie Ceccarelli, US

6. 2030-08-01: Kahoru Furuya, Japan

7. 2030-11-03: Tomiko Itooka, Japan

8. 2030-11-19: Inah Canabarro Lucas, Brazil

9. 2030-11-30: Hazel Plummer, US

10. 2030-12-01: Kimiko Ono, Japan

11. 2031-05-08: Yasue Okai, Japan

12. 2031-05-16: Hide Hamabe, Japan

13. 2031-08-26: Shinobu Hayashi, Japan

14. 2031-08-27: Annabelle Holblinger, US

15. 2031-10-29: Shige Mineshiba, Canada

16. 2031-11-07: Juan Vicente Pérez Mora, Venezuela

@Yev Lucile died :(

@Yev Branyas got COVID, and although she recovered, this probably drastically decreases her chances to reach the record age. Bessie Hendrix died.

Kahoru passed

Maria is the closest, but she still only has ~.08% chance of even making it to 120:
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

Even assuming all dozen women left were Maria's age, they'd still only be ~1% actuarial odds any made it to 120, let alone ~122.5

@PatMyron lol, looks like you also voted in the wrong direction like me when I made the previous comment - that would mean the record is more likely to hold

Kimiko, Yasue, Hide, Shinobu, Annabelle, and Shige also passed, so there are actually only 6 women left rather than a dozen

@na_pewno thanks, bet the wrong direction, got confused by the question being "will nothing change?" rather than "will X happen?"

makes more sense that it was trending upwards now, basically a guaranteed mana interest rate question