Resolves YES if the 7d avg DAU at the end of 2026 is >1000. Otherwise resolves NO. Update 2026-05-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The 7d avg DAU metric used for resolution will be Active Users (not Active Traders) from the Manifold stats page.

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 80% chance (60 traders, as of May 30, 2026).

Will Manifold Markets still be popular at the end of 2026?

Will Manifold Markets still be popular at the end of 2026?

Ṁ1kṀ2.6k

2027

80%

chance

ALL

Resolves YES if the 7d avg DAU at the end of 2026 is >1000. Otherwise resolves NO.

Update 2026-05-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The 7d avg DAU metric used for resolution will be Active Users (not Active Traders) from the Manifold stats page.

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@NathanNguyen from the current version of the stats page would this be the Active Users or the Active Traders version?

@Eliza Active users