Eli Gaultney's calibration
Grade: C, Score: -6.41
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Eli Gaultney bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
- A market on Manifold Markets will be a key point in some sort of significant social drama in 2022YESṀ200
- Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?NOṀ10
- Will SpaceX’s 3rd Starship test flight have a “rapid unscheduled disassembly“ (of either stage)?YESṀ10
60%
70%
80%
- Will SpaceX's launch license for a second Starship–Superheavy flight be granted by the FAA before November 16th?YESṀ200
- Will Manifold reach 10,000 Monthly Active Users again by the end of 2023? [Ṁ200 Pool]YESṀ100
- Will the FBI, NSA, or CIA have another major cybersecurity-related document leak before December 31st, 2022?NOṀ100
90%
95%
97%