Russia launched a multifocal military attack on Ukraine on February 24th, 2022. The scale of the combat, as well as Russian rhetoric, leaves the possibility of additional military actions in the region.
If Russia exerts kinetic military action in the territory of a NATO member, and/or targeting facilities, vehicles or citizens of a member country of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) by December 31st, 2022, then the resolution of this market will be “Yes”. Kinetic military action excludes electronic and cybernetic war resources and includes the shooting of projectiles, troops, and military vehicles deployment inside a territory.
@Predictor If the derivative market trades very high, you can buy "NO" options here and there, and hedge cheaply
I think it's possible the Polish missile incident will embolden Russia. It seems to me a lot of countries were very unwilling to escalate. Seems likely Russia will take this a license to poke the bear a bit more knowing NATO is hesitant to act.
@EliGaultney Given that Russia is currently in retreat it seems unlikely that they'll be spending their resources poking any bears when instead they could poke more immediate threats like Ukrainian soldiers
@EliGaultney But this is predicated on the "Ukrainian misfire" explanation being a lie to avoid responding. Maybe it was the truth? The sticking point is that it seemed to be an S300, and there's nowhere in range for Russia to use one of those, so it was likely a Ukrainian misfire. Being "the good guys" doesn't mean you never make a mistake.
Plus, why attack a farm in the middle of nowhere knowing full well it could escalate into WW3?
If they were going to risk everything, why not hit something of strategic/shock value? "Plausibly deniable" or "test the waters" still doesn't explain hitting a farm over a power plant or rail link to Ukraine (or an apartment block, knowing Russia).
@ChristopherMelton No, predicated on the way we responded before it was clear it was a misfire. For a little while it was quite possibly a Russian missile and I think the global reaction would make Russia feel like they can get away with more.
https://www.fox9.com/news/biden-calls-emergency-meeting-missile-hits-poland
Can anyone suggest some other markets to keep an eye on as this market flirts with YES?
@Predictor do you count the recent strike as a YES here? It was probably accidental, but it seems to maybe fit your resolution criteria
@Predictor
If NATO confirms that it was Russian hardware, but Russia continues to deny they launched the attack, would you consider that "100% confirmed"?
@Predictor Why is this so low? Poland confirmed it was Russian missiles. Last night you indicated that would resolve YES.
@BTE You are a bit behind on this... (see: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/11/16/nato-poland-missile-russia/)
Predicting <5% based on these related markets. I think there's <1% chance of Russia escalating to attacking NATO first, I expect the way this would happen is if NATO launches a military strike in response to a Russian nuke and then Russia counterattacks.
