Predictor avatar
closes Jan 1, 2023
Will Russia launch a military attack against a NATO member by the end of 2022?
3%
chance

Russia launched a multifocal military attack on Ukraine on February 24th, 2022. The scale of the combat, as well as Russian rhetoric, leaves the possibility of additional military actions in the region.

If Russia exerts kinetic military action in the territory of a NATO member, and/or targeting facilities, vehicles or citizens of a member country of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) by December 31st, 2022, then the resolution of this market will be “Yes”. Kinetic military action excludes electronic and cybernetic war resources and includes the shooting of projectiles, troops, and military vehicles deployment inside a territory.

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lu avatar

Derivative market for hedging against improper (or late) resolution:

Predictor avatar
Predictor 🔥
is predicting NO at 5%

@lu What are you going on about?

lu avatar

@Predictor If the derivative market trades very high, you can buy "NO" options here and there, and hedge cheaply

EliGaultney avatar
Eli Gaultney
bought Ṁ10 of YES

I think it's possible the Polish missile incident will embolden Russia. It seems to me a lot of countries were very unwilling to escalate. Seems likely Russia will take this a license to poke the bear a bit more knowing NATO is hesitant to act.

vluzko avatar
Vincent Luczkow
is predicting NO at 8%

@EliGaultney Given that Russia is currently in retreat it seems unlikely that they'll be spending their resources poking any bears when instead they could poke more immediate threats like Ukrainian soldiers

ChristopherMelton avatar
CJMelt
bought Ṁ75 of NO

@EliGaultney But this is predicated on the "Ukrainian misfire" explanation being a lie to avoid responding. Maybe it was the truth? The sticking point is that it seemed to be an S300, and there's nowhere in range for Russia to use one of those, so it was likely a Ukrainian misfire. Being "the good guys" doesn't mean you never make a mistake.
Plus, why attack a farm in the middle of nowhere knowing full well it could escalate into WW3?

If they were going to risk everything, why not hit something of strategic/shock value? "Plausibly deniable" or "test the waters" still doesn't explain hitting a farm over a power plant or rail link to Ukraine (or an apartment block, knowing Russia).

EliGaultney avatar
Eli Gaultney
is predicting YES at 9%

@ChristopherMelton No, predicated on the way we responded before it was clear it was a misfire. For a little while it was quite possibly a Russian missile and I think the global reaction would make Russia feel like they can get away with more.

kolotom99 avatar
Tomek K ☑️
is predicting NO at 13%

Related:

VivaLaPanda avatar
VivaLaPanda
bought Ṁ300 of YES

https://www.fox9.com/news/biden-calls-emergency-meeting-missile-hits-poland

Charlie avatar
Charlie
is predicting NO at 79%

Can anyone suggest some other markets to keep an eye on as this market flirts with YES?

jack avatar
Jack
bought Ṁ500 of YES
Charlie avatar
Charlie
bought Ṁ5 of NO

@jack Thanks!!

TriHard avatar
TriHard
bought Ṁ100 of NO
jack avatar
Jack
bought Ṁ45 of NO

@TriHard tweet appears deleted/unavailable now.

Don't Ukraine and Russia use a lot of the same weapons?

jack avatar
Jack
bought Ṁ35 of YES

@jack nvm, it loaded now, must have been poor internet on my end or musk's fault lol

jack avatar
Jack
is predicting YES at 47%

@jack (humor not intended to make light of a very worrying situation, but to express my frustration that we rely on Twitter with all it's problems for such critical information)

VivaLaPanda avatar
VivaLaPanda
bought Ṁ100 of YES

@Predictor do you count the recent strike as a YES here? It was probably accidental, but it seems to maybe fit your resolution criteria

Predictor avatar
Predictor 🔥
is predicting NO at 87%

@VivaLaPanda Yes, I believe so. However, I will not resolve until it is 100% confirmed.

VivaLaPanda avatar
VivaLaPanda
is predicting YES at 86%

@Predictor thanks for the quick response!

whenhaveiever avatar

@Predictor
If NATO confirms that it was Russian hardware, but Russia continues to deny they launched the attack, would you consider that "100% confirmed"?

Predictor avatar
Predictor 🔥
is predicting NO at 93%

@whenhaveiever Yes, just like the MH17 situation.

BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 7%

@Predictor Why is this so low? Poland confirmed it was Russian missiles. Last night you indicated that would resolve YES.

basedschizo avatar
based&schizo
is predicting NO at 6%
jack avatar
Jack
bought Ṁ100 of NO

Predicting <5% based on these related markets. I think there's <1% chance of Russia escalating to attacking NATO first, I expect the way this would happen is if NATO launches a military strike in response to a Russian nuke and then Russia counterattacks.