Will the US government shut down on Oct 1st, 2023 because Congress fails to pass a budget?
94
1K
1.8K
resolved Oct 6
Resolved
NO

I'll update the dates if the deadline changes, but I believe that's currently the projected deadline.

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predicted NO

This can resolve to “NO”

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@KevinBurke unresolved question in comments about whether the cr counts as "the deadline changes"

bought Ṁ70 of YES

@MartinRandall I think it'd be pretty wrong to do that after the date has already hit and people have traded on that fact, but well I've seen crazier things on this website.

predicted NO

Yeah, that wording is very bad but it clearly should resolve NO. The title is very specific and the description is very vague.

@jack Plus the guy hasn’t been active in 5 months. lol I regret participating in this market, but good learning experience

predicted NO

Lmaoooo what

FWIW the Kalshi criterion is “OPM contains shutdown notice on Monday October 2.”

bought Ṁ100 of NO

I don't think it's fair for those who've already bought NO to change the date. On Manifold it's very uncommon to change the title so significantly after it's been set.

Nevermind

How will this market resolve if there is a short term continuing resolution but the government still shuts down, say, in November, or December? This happened in 2018. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E2%80%932019_United_States_federal_government_shutdown)