Conditional on legislative approval, will the Chilean people approve the new proposal for a constitution?
34
338
708
resolved Dec 18
Resolved
NO

Update: This market resolves strictly according to the official results of the Chilean National Plebiscite on Sunday 17th of December.

The major political parties of Chile just reached an agreement to draft a new constitution written by a mixed body of experts and elected constituents.

Assuming this agreement will be formalized by law, what's the probability that this new proposal gets approved by the Chilean people?

If the process doesn't get approved by congress or otherwise the final vote doesn't happen, this will resolve to N/A.

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ292
2Ṁ291
3Ṁ115
4Ṁ103
5Ṁ101
Sort by:
predicted NO

Just because I'm a sworn institutionalist, I'll wait until the Electoral Service certifies the official results 🫡

bought Ṁ171 of NO

99.3% in:

predicted NO

predicted NO

bought Ṁ100 of NO

predicted NO

predicted NO

https://x.com/servelchile official results will appear here.

bought Ṁ30 of NO

@agucova, you should close this market on December 17th because final results should be known near 18:00 hours GMT -3

predicted NO

@JaimeSantaCruz Done! Incidentally, I'll be on a transoceanic flight most of the day (because I'm a terrible Chilean, I know) so I might resolve the market a bit later than the official announcement by SERVEL

predicted NO

@agucova It depends on wether you would have voted a favor or en contra…

predicted NO

@JaimeSantaCruz that I shall not speak about

bought Ṁ10 YES from 30% to 32%
predicted NO

@d ???

bought Ṁ10 YES from 29% to 30%
predicted NO

@JaimeSantaCruz actually, I did not give much thought to this reply, but actually, the market close date doesn't matter. We can enjoy seeing the market swing around based on last-minute polls; I'm bumping it to the next day

predicted NO

@agucova So be it.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@agucova no credits :(

predicted NO

props to @d for criticizing my decision (?)

bought Ṁ10 YES from 28% to 29%
bought Ṁ20 NO
bought Ṁ20 of NO
bought Ṁ20 of NO

Difícil saber.