Will Manifold hit 2,000 active users daily (7d average) in 2022?
Basic
17
Ṁ4534
resolved Nov 14
Resolved
YES

via https://manifold.markets/stats, Daily 7d average

here is the market for 5,000 users:


Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

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predicted YES

You need to forgive me.

or let's hope there will still be 2,000 reached in 2022

predicted NO

@kolotom99 The daily users are dropping off, so 7 day average could be next. If it looks like it's dropping after a couple days, we should go to Manifold mods to get it reversed. The report thing doesnt seem to do anything, other than get someone banned if they're reported enough

predicted YES

@PhillipConstantine Yes, current trend is downward. Let's wait till eoy.

In the meantime:

I'm sorry, resolved by mistake. Flagged myself.

The Destiny Wave makes this a lot more likely than previously - 5000 still feels like a stretch though

Only a month and a half left, and there is unlikely to be any event bigger than the US midterms to bring people in. But the momentum is there, so 30% seems right.

predicted NO

@PhillipConstantine The big event driving recent growth seems to have been Destiny, not the midterms, but I'm unsure of how much more will come with that.

Will Manifold hit 2,000 active users daily (7d average) in 2022?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

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