Will Vladimir Putin die in any way by 2024? | Manifold Markets

closes Jan 1, 2024

World Putin Life Insurance Russia

Will Vladimir Putin die in any way by 2024?

13%

chance

1D

1W

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bought Ṁ80 of NO

If he gets through this war he's not going to do something else this risky before 2023 ends.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

He's old, in poor health (reportedly), and in a precarious political position. It wouldn't be surprising.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

He's old, in poor health (reportedly), and in a precarious political position.

And even his base rate is much lower than 1.5% per month.

is predicting YES at 18%

@Gigacasting There is a difference between being old and having cancer.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Welcome to Putin Assassination Markets!

bought Ṁ10 of NO

The only reason he's still alive is that he's very careful. Even if he loses power, I think he'd end up in jail. Death by natural causes is always possible, but unlikely.

bought Ṁ50 NO at 13%

Arrrrrrr 🤖Bot

bought Ṁ6 YES at 13%

Arrrrrrr 🤖Bot

bought Ṁ39 NO at 13%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 14% to 13%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 14%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 14%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 14%

Arrrrrrr 🤖Bot

bought Ṁ6 YES at 14%

bought Ṁ30 NO at 14%

Dennis Christensen

bought Ṁ10 NO at 14%

Arrrrrrr 🤖Bot

bought Ṁ37 NO from 15% to 14%

Marshall Polaris

bought Ṁ10 YES from 14% to 15%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 14%

Shaked Koplewitz

bought Ṁ50 NO from 15% to 14%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 15%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 15%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 16% to 15%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 14% to 16%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 15% to 14%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 15%

bought Ṁ100 NO from 17% to 15%

bought Ṁ100 NO from 20% to 17%

bought Ṁ100 NO from 24% to 20%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ9/Ṁ100 YES at 24% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ100 NO from 28% to 23%

bought Ṁ20 YES from 25% to 28%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 23% to 25%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 22% to 23%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 20% to 22%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 19% to 20%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 18% to 19%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 17% to 18%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 15% to 17%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 14% to 15%

Arbitrage BotBot

filled limit order Ṁ197/Ṁ197 NO at 14%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ60/Ṁ67 NO at 19% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ55/Ṁ100 NO at 21% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ100 YES from 11% to 23%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 11%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 11%

bought Ṁ20 NO from 12% to 11%

Arbitrage BotBot

filled limit order Ṁ85/Ṁ85 NO at 12%

Jakub Kolčář

bought Ṁ10 NO at 13%

bought Ṁ50 NO from 14% to 13%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 13% to 14%

bought Ṁ40 NO at 13%

bought Ṁ45 NO from 14% to 13%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 14%

Arbitrage BotBot

filled limit order Ṁ97/Ṁ97 NO at 14%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 16%