Will Vladimir Putin die in any way by 2024?
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resolved Jan 1
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NO

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Даже когда я умру, мир будет дрожать. Мир будет тосковать по памяти моей души. 👻

bought Ṁ500 of NO

1.3% on actuarial table + 1% outside view assassination. Yes is pure hopium

bought Ṁ80 of NO

If he gets through this war he's not going to do something else this risky before 2023 ends.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

He's old, in poor health (reportedly), and in a precarious political position. It wouldn't be surprising.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

He's old, in poor health (reportedly), and in a precarious political position.

And even his base rate is much lower than 1.5% per month.

predicted YES

@Gigacasting There is a difference between being old and having cancer.

bought Ṁ10 of NO
bought Ṁ10 of NO

The only reason he's still alive is that he's very careful. Even if he loses power, I think he'd end up in jail. Death by natural causes is always possible, but unlikely.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@belikewater he's been careful his whole life, but now he made a major mistake that upset everything, and he's not managing to back out. Either he knows he's dying and doesn't care anymore, or he's panicking and liable to make more mistakes.

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