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Даже когда я умру, мир будет дрожать. Мир будет тосковать по памяти моей души. 👻

1.3% on actuarial table + 1% outside view assassination. Yes is pure hopium

If he gets through this war he's not going to do something else this risky before 2023 ends.

He's old, in poor health (reportedly), and in a precarious political position. It wouldn't be surprising.

He's old, in poor health (reportedly), and in a precarious political position.

And even his base rate is much lower than 1.5% per month.

@Gigacasting

@Gigacasting There is a difference between being old and having cancer.

Welcome to Putin Assassination Markets!

The only reason he's still alive is that he's very careful. Even if he loses power, I think he'd end up in jail. Death by natural causes is always possible, but unlikely.

@belikewater he's been careful his whole life, but now he made a major mistake that upset everything, and he's not managing to back out. Either he knows he's dying and doesn't care anymore, or he's panicking and liable to make more mistakes.