Will Vladimir Putin die in any way by 2024?
Will Vladimir Putin die in any way by 2024?
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He's old, in poor health (reportedly), and in a precarious political position. It wouldn't be surprising.
He's old, in poor health (reportedly), and in a precarious political position.
And even his base rate is much lower than 1.5% per month.
The only reason he's still alive is that he's very careful. Even if he loses power, I think he'd end up in jail. Death by natural causes is always possible, but unlikely.
@belikewater he's been careful his whole life, but now he made a major mistake that upset everything, and he's not managing to back out. Either he knows he's dying and doesn't care anymore, or he's panicking and liable to make more mistakes.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.