resolved Nov 10
A market on Manifold Markets will be a key point in some sort of significant social drama in 2022
Resolved
YES
This market resolves to YES if in my judgement, a market's existence, question, description, trades, comments, tags, probability, resolution, the identities of those participating in the market, information revealed in any of the above, etc, leads to social drama sometime this year. Discourse that does not pertain to anyone's personal lives does not count as social drama. I mostly hang out on Discord but do also occasionally hear about stuff that happens on Facebook, Twitter, tumblr, and in real life.

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Yev avatar
Yevpredicted YES
Elena avatar
Elenapredicted YES

Sorry for the delay in explaining the resolution, I wanted to make sure I had permission to share first. I resolved YES per a recent Facebook post by @AlyssaVance regarding the market https://manifold.markets/nyuuposts/will-nyuu5711-me-and-vara20969598-b. Relevant quote:

> Unfortunately, one person bet No, then tried to break us up. As far as I can tell, this was a serious attempt, not a joke or a prank. Luckily it didn’t work.

jack avatar
Jack

@Elena May I ask whether they attempted to do this purely for profit? I could imagine them honestly believing that the relationship was a bad idea, and therefore trying to break them up while also honestly predicting on their beliefs. If the former, that's really bad. Thanks for sharing.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwards

@Elena I think this is a lame reason to resolve this market. Key word: significant. I can’t think of a less significant drama than the one cited. This is a dishonorable market imo.

JoyVoid avatar
joy_void_joypredicted YES

@BTE I personally agree with the resolution, in that it is implicit that social means "social with respect to my own bubble", and if it was something big in their group, then it makes sense to me

jack avatar
Jack

I think it's people interpreting the meaning of "social drama" differently. The author clearly meant about individual people's personal lives: "Discourse that does not pertain to anyone's personal lives does not count as social drama." In that context, drama about relationships and an attempt to break up a relationship is clearly significant imo.

MichaelWheatley avatar
Michael Wheatleypredicted NO

It doesn't sound too significant to me. Of course, I can't see the Facebook post, the reaction, or the larger fallout.

If all it amounted to in the end was a single call-out post on Facebook, about an attempt that didn't amount to anything, that doesn't seem too dramatic.

I took a look at the market history and IIRC, there wasn't anyone who actually had a large profit motive in breaking them up, there was never more than like, ten dollars on the line, so it looks more like they were making a weird joke or were planning to do it anyway.

Manya avatar
Manyapredicted YES

IDK about you, but I would be KIND OF UPSET if someone tried to seriously break up a relationship I was in for the sake of fake internet money. It seems kind of strange to say that it didn't amount to anything except a facebook call-out post, as if the hurt feelings weren't the relevant aspect here.

MichaelWheatley avatar
Michael Wheatleypredicted NO

@Manya I would normally interpret hurt feelings as something different from social drama. If someone has their feelings hurt but by and large everyone is able to handle it like adults, I wouldn't normally consider that drama.

AndrewHartman avatar
Andrew Hartmanpredicted NO

And, to further my losing streak on mysteriously resolved markets this week, a new entry.

MichaelWheatley avatar
Michael Wheatleypredicted NO

@AndrewHartman You think you've got it bad?

AndrewHartman avatar
Andrew Hartmanpredicted NO

@MichaelWheatley Ouch. That's more than my whole portfolio.

JoyVoid avatar
joy_void_joypredicted YES

I'm confused why this resolved yes, unless it is self referential in advance 😄

GeorgeVii avatar
GeorgeViipredicted YES

woah manifold had a 10k limit order at 50!
wonder who ate that, yikes

GeorgeVii avatar
GeorgeViipredicted YES

@GeorgeVii oh noo was jb!

MichaelWheatley avatar
Michael Wheatleypredicted NO

What was the drama?

MichaelWheatley avatar
Michael Wheatleypredicted NO

Now I feel better about selling 1000 shares by accident last week.

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall

@MichaelWheatley I'm so curious!

noumena avatar
Rachel Shupredicted YES at 28%
Yev avatar
Yevpredicted YES at 28%

@noumena That's romance, not drama. Different literary genres.

Yev avatar
Yevbought Ṁ100 of YES

Does nuking LessWrong count as significant social drama?

jbeshir avatar
John Beshirbought Ṁ35 of NO

@Yev I don't think it pertains to anyone's personal life. "Discourse that does not pertain to anyone's personal lives does not count as social drama."

JoyVoid avatar
joy_void_joypredicted YES at 30%

@Yev In my understanding, only if there's, eg, significant backlash to the market creator or traders ("The site was nuked because of you, that's just so reckless and ignorant")

Yev avatar
Yevpredicted YES at 30%

Well, it doesn't matter because it got un-nuked.

NuñoSempere avatar
Nuño Semperebought Ṁ700 of YES

Sadly I think should resolve yes per https://twitter.com/NunoSempere/status/1564928597567193088 , which is going to cost me.

NuñoSempere avatar
Nuño Semperepredicted YES at 69%

Ok, reading the comments below this doesn't look great for me, but I didn't do this on purpose for this market.

GeorgeVii avatar
GeorgeViibought Ṁ100 of YES

@NuñoSempere yikes. haha, i miss this Nuño

MichaelWheatley avatar
Michael Wheatleybought Ṁ200 of NO

@NuñoSempere I don't think it's much of a drama if you make a misstep and then immediately reverse yourself.

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randallsold Ṁ4 of YES

@MichaelWheatley Big drama when someone else creates the same market.

JoyVoid avatar
joy_void_joypredicted YES at 25%

I do not believe this should resolve YES yet, seems fairly minimal in scale (though it must not have been pleasant for you at all, I'm sorry for that :( )

Sinclair avatar
Sinclair Chen

inb4 social drama caused by people pestering Chris Olah on whether he considers this dramatic. self fulfilling forecast.

Spindle avatar
Spindlepredicted NO at 28%

someone plz help i am getting so much LOAN MONEY that I will soon be tempted to commit MANA LOAN FRAUD.

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randallpredicted YES at 28%

@Spindle I am hoping that a Delaware judge doesn't order Musk to purchase Twitter so that you don't need to beg Biden for mana loan forgiveness. 🍀

Spindle avatar
Spindlepredicted NO at 28%

@MartinRandall U know what just for that

Sinclair avatar
Sinclair Chen

coming to Netflix this year, the @Spindle swindler

DrP avatar
Dr Ppredicted YES at 45% https://manifold.markets/DrP/will-donald-j-trump-be-the-presiden-0e059855d7f0 *contributions to the Trump Election Defense Fund are non-refundable.
journcy avatar
journcybought Ṁ20 of YES#MarketsForMoving!
JoyVoid avatar
joy_void_joypredicted YES at 43% @journcy What does this tag mean?
horse avatar
horsepredicted YES at 43% @JoyVoid They're markets that people in general can move by doing things. In this case they're saying you could buy yes on this market, then cause social drama via manifold, somehow, and profit.
JoyVoid avatar
joy_void_joypredicted YES at 43% @horse Ah so like #notanassassinationmarket but broader and less disturbing :D ... Thanks a lot for the explanation!
SymbolProject avatar
Symbol Projectbought Ṁ20 of NO🥱
DrP avatar
Dr Pbought Ṁ100 of YESI win.
JoyVoid avatar
joy_void_joybought Ṁ50 of YESSeeing all the discussions on https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/open-thread-228/comment/7097497?s=r , I think this is undervalued
GeorgeVii avatar
GeorgeViibought Ṁ20 of YESIf we can't cause drama we need to reassess. Who are we? What are we really doing here?
MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randallbought Ṁ4 of YESIs this higher or lower due to public bets?
NuñoSempere avatar
Nuño Semperebought Ṁ50 of YES> Selling all to align my incentives better. At the cost of un-aligning the incentives for the rest of us. MUAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Sinclair avatar
Sinclair Chensold Ṁ102 of YESSelling all to align my incentives better. But also, given that no social drama has really happened yet, the probability of this should be ticking down over time. (both to update on the evidence and because the chance it happens within 6 months is less than the chance it happens in 8)
Spindle avatar
Spindlebought Ṁ1 of NOSorry Ophelia I'm saving my money for a stunt in August
Ophelia avatar
Opheliabought Ṁ75 of YESLast time a whale sold, I could make a bunch of money before people bought it back up. How about this time? 🥺
TheSkeward avatar
TheSkewardbought Ṁ1,000 of YESthe adam thing
NuñoSempere avatar
Nuño Semperebought Ṁ20 of YESIf this doesn't happen, Manifold Markets is doing it wrong.
Elena avatar
Elenabought Ṁ1 of YESI originally tried to operationalize what I meant by "significant" and eventually discarded that bit. I *do* have an idea of what sorts of things count as significant and what don't, which looks at factors like "how many people were affected" and "was anyone have a bad time or was everyone having fun", but ultimately what counts as "significant" is going to be decided at my discretion.
Accountdeletionrequested avatar
Account deletion requestedbought Ṁ20 of NO"significant" is in the title, not in description
Spindle avatar
Spindlebought Ṁ1,000 of YESwhales
Spindle avatar
Spindlebought Ṁ1 of YESheads
hamnox avatar
Em of the Night ☑️bought Ṁ5 of YEShttps://imgur.com/gallery/7hA2YCN
TheSkeward avatar
TheSkewardbought Ṁ20 of YEShttps://i.imgur.com/DJpJiJI.png
Sinclair avatar
Sinclair Chenbought Ṁ100 of YESI precommit to being influenced by moral hazard here
tcheasdfjkl avatar
tcheasdfjklsold Ṁ7 of NOhey, there can be MANY dramas in one year
tigrennatenn avatar
tigrennatennbought Ṁ10 of NOI think this is underestimating the size of the possible-drama-cause space