A market on Manifold Markets will be a key point in some sort of significant social drama in 2022
49%
chance
Jan 1, 2023
M$12,051 bet
This market resolves to YES if in my judgement, a market's existence, question, description, trades, comments, tags, probability, resolution, the identities of those participating in the market, information revealed in any of the above, etc, leads to social drama sometime this year. Discourse that does not pertain to anyone's personal lives does not count as social drama. I mostly hang out on Discord but do also occasionally hear about stuff that happens on Facebook, Twitter, tumblr, and in real life.
MartinRandall

Martin Randall bought M$4 of YES7 days ago

Is this higher or lower due to public bets?
NuñoSempere

Nuño Sempere bought M$50 of YES23 days ago

> Selling all to align my incentives better. At the cost of un-aligning the incentives for the rest of us. MUAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Sinclair

Sinclair Chen sold M$102 of YES23 days ago

Selling all to align my incentives better. But also, given that no social drama has really happened yet, the probability of this should be ticking down over time. (both to update on the evidence and because the chance it happens within 6 months is less than the chance it happens in 8)
Spindle

Spindle bought M$1 of NO2 months ago

Sorry Ophelia I'm saving my money for a stunt in August
Ophelia

Ophelia bought M$75 of YES2 months ago

Last time a whale sold, I could make a bunch of money before people bought it back up. How about this time? 🥺
TheSkeward

TheSkeward bought M$1,000 of YES2 months ago

the adam thing
NuñoSempere

Nuño Sempere bought M$20 of YES3 months ago

If this doesn't happen, Manifold Markets is doing it wrong.
Elena

Elena bought M$1 of YES3 months ago

I originally tried to operationalize what I meant by "significant" and eventually discarded that bit. I *do* have an idea of what sorts of things count as significant and what don't, which looks at factors like "how many people were affected" and "was anyone have a bad time or was everyone having fun", but ultimately what counts as "significant" is going to be decided at my discretion.
M

M bought M$20 of NO3 months ago

"significant" is in the title, not in description
Spindle

Spindle bought M$1,000 of YES3 months ago

whales
Spindle

Spindle bought M$1 of YES3 months ago

heads
Sinclair

Sinclair Chen bought M$100 of YES3 months ago

I precommit to being influenced by moral hazard here
tcheasdfjkl

tcheasdfjkl sold M$7 of NO3 months ago

hey, there can be MANY dramas in one year
tigrennatenn

tigrennatenn bought M$10 of NO3 months ago

I think this is underestimating the size of the possible-drama-cause space