A market on Manifold Markets will be a key point in some sort of significant social drama in 2022
164
606
598
resolved Nov 10
Resolved
YES
This market resolves to YES if in my judgement, a market's existence, question, description, trades, comments, tags, probability, resolution, the identities of those participating in the market, information revealed in any of the above, etc, leads to social drama sometime this year. Discourse that does not pertain to anyone's personal lives does not count as social drama. I mostly hang out on Discord but do also occasionally hear about stuff that happens on Facebook, Twitter, tumblr, and in real life.
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predicted YES
predicted YES

Sorry for the delay in explaining the resolution, I wanted to make sure I had permission to share first. I resolved YES per a recent Facebook post by @AlyssaVance regarding the market https://manifold.markets/nyuuposts/will-nyuu5711-me-and-vara20969598-b. Relevant quote:

> Unfortunately, one person bet No, then tried to break us up. As far as I can tell, this was a serious attempt, not a joke or a prank. Luckily it didn’t work.

@Elena May I ask whether they attempted to do this purely for profit? I could imagine them honestly believing that the relationship was a bad idea, and therefore trying to break them up while also honestly predicting on their beliefs. If the former, that's really bad. Thanks for sharing.

@Elena I think this is a lame reason to resolve this market. Key word: significant. I can’t think of a less significant drama than the one cited. This is a dishonorable market imo.

predicted YES

@BTE I personally agree with the resolution, in that it is implicit that social means "social with respect to my own bubble", and if it was something big in their group, then it makes sense to me

I think it's people interpreting the meaning of "social drama" differently. The author clearly meant about individual people's personal lives: "Discourse that does not pertain to anyone's personal lives does not count as social drama." In that context, drama about relationships and an attempt to break up a relationship is clearly significant imo.

predicted NO

It doesn't sound too significant to me. Of course, I can't see the Facebook post, the reaction, or the larger fallout.

If all it amounted to in the end was a single call-out post on Facebook, about an attempt that didn't amount to anything, that doesn't seem too dramatic.

I took a look at the market history and IIRC, there wasn't anyone who actually had a large profit motive in breaking them up, there was never more than like, ten dollars on the line, so it looks more like they were making a weird joke or were planning to do it anyway.

predicted YES

IDK about you, but I would be KIND OF UPSET if someone tried to seriously break up a relationship I was in for the sake of fake internet money. It seems kind of strange to say that it didn't amount to anything except a facebook call-out post, as if the hurt feelings weren't the relevant aspect here.

predicted NO

@Manya I would normally interpret hurt feelings as something different from social drama. If someone has their feelings hurt but by and large everyone is able to handle it like adults, I wouldn't normally consider that drama.

predicted NO

And, to further my losing streak on mysteriously resolved markets this week, a new entry.

predicted NO

@AndrewHartman You think you've got it bad?

predicted NO

@MichaelWheatley Ouch. That's more than my whole portfolio.

predicted YES

I'm confused why this resolved yes, unless it is self referential in advance 😄

predicted YES

woah manifold had a 10k limit order at 50!
wonder who ate that, yikes

predicted YES

@GeorgeVii oh noo was jb!

predicted NO

What was the drama?

predicted NO

Now I feel better about selling 1000 shares by accident last week.

@MichaelWheatley I'm so curious!

predicted YES
predicted YES

@noumena That's romance, not drama. Different literary genres.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

Does nuking LessWrong count as significant social drama?

bought Ṁ35 of NO

@Yev I don't think it pertains to anyone's personal life. "Discourse that does not pertain to anyone's personal lives does not count as social drama."

predicted YES

@Yev In my understanding, only if there's, eg, significant backlash to the market creator or traders ("The site was nuked because of you, that's just so reckless and ignorant")

predicted YES

Well, it doesn't matter because it got un-nuked.

bought Ṁ700 of YES

Sadly I think should resolve yes per https://twitter.com/NunoSempere/status/1564928597567193088 , which is going to cost me.

predicted YES

Ok, reading the comments below this doesn't look great for me, but I didn't do this on purpose for this market.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@NuñoSempere yikes. haha, i miss this Nuño

bought Ṁ200 of NO

@NuñoSempere I don't think it's much of a drama if you make a misstep and then immediately reverse yourself.

sold Ṁ4 of YES

@MichaelWheatley Big drama when someone else creates the same market.

predicted YES

I do not believe this should resolve YES yet, seems fairly minimal in scale (though it must not have been pleasant for you at all, I'm sorry for that :( )

inb4 social drama caused by people pestering Chris Olah on whether he considers this dramatic. self fulfilling forecast.