A market on Manifold Markets will be a key point in some sort of significant social drama in 2022
Jan 1, 2023
This market resolves to YES if in my judgement, a market's existence, question, description, trades, comments, tags, probability, resolution, the identities of those participating in the market, information revealed in any of the above, etc, leads to social drama sometime this year. Discourse that does not pertain to anyone's personal lives does not count as social drama. I mostly hang out on Discord but do also occasionally hear about stuff that happens on Facebook, Twitter, tumblr, and in real life.
Selling all to align my incentives better. But also, given that no social drama has really happened yet, the probability of this should be ticking down over time. (both to update on the evidence and because the chance it happens within 6 months is less than the chance it happens in 8)
I originally tried to operationalize what I meant by "significant" and eventually discarded that bit. I *do* have an idea of what sorts of things count as significant and what don't, which looks at factors like "how many people were affected" and "was anyone have a bad time or was everyone having fun", but ultimately what counts as "significant" is going to be decided at my discretion.