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Sorry for the delay in explaining the resolution, I wanted to make sure I had permission to share first. I resolved YES per a recent Facebook post by @AlyssaVance regarding the market https://manifold.markets/nyuuposts/will-nyuu5711-me-and-vara20969598-b. Relevant quote:
> Unfortunately, one person bet No, then tried to break us up. As far as I can tell, this was a serious attempt, not a joke or a prank. Luckily it didn’t work.
@Elena I think this is a lame reason to resolve this market. Key word: significant. I can’t think of a less significant drama than the one cited. This is a dishonorable market imo.
@BTE I personally agree with the resolution, in that it is implicit that social means "social with respect to my own bubble", and if it was something big in their group, then it makes sense to me
I think it's people interpreting the meaning of "social drama" differently. The author clearly meant about individual people's personal lives: "Discourse that does not pertain to anyone's personal lives does not count as social drama." In that context, drama about relationships and an attempt to break up a relationship is clearly significant imo.
It doesn't sound too significant to me. Of course, I can't see the Facebook post, the reaction, or the larger fallout.
If all it amounted to in the end was a single call-out post on Facebook, about an attempt that didn't amount to anything, that doesn't seem too dramatic.
I took a look at the market history and IIRC, there wasn't anyone who actually had a large profit motive in breaking them up, there was never more than like, ten dollars on the line, so it looks more like they were making a weird joke or were planning to do it anyway.
IDK about you, but I would be KIND OF UPSET if someone tried to seriously break up a relationship I was in for the sake of fake internet money. It seems kind of strange to say that it didn't amount to anything except a facebook call-out post, as if the hurt feelings weren't the relevant aspect here.
@Manya I would normally interpret hurt feelings as something different from social drama. If someone has their feelings hurt but by and large everyone is able to handle it like adults, I wouldn't normally consider that drama.
And, to further my losing streak on mysteriously resolved markets this week, a new entry.
@AndrewHartman You think you've got it bad?
@MichaelWheatley Ouch. That's more than my whole portfolio.
I'm confused why this resolved yes, unless it is self referential in advance 😄
woah manifold had a 10k limit order at 50!
wonder who ate that, yikes
@GeorgeVii oh noo was jb!
What was the drama?
Now I feel better about selling 1000 shares by accident last week.
@MichaelWheatley I'm so curious!
does happy drama count? https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/will-austin-chen-get-a-girlfriend-a
Does nuking LessWrong count as significant social drama?
@Yev I don't think it pertains to anyone's personal life. "Discourse that does not pertain to anyone's personal lives does not count as social drama."
@Yev In my understanding, only if there's, eg, significant backlash to the market creator or traders ("The site was nuked because of you, that's just so reckless and ignorant")
Well, it doesn't matter because it got un-nuked.
Sadly I think should resolve yes per https://twitter.com/NunoSempere/status/1564928597567193088 , which is going to cost me.
Ok, reading the comments below this doesn't look great for me, but I didn't do this on purpose for this market.
@NuñoSempere yikes. haha, i miss this Nuño
@NuñoSempere I don't think it's much of a drama if you make a misstep and then immediately reverse yourself.
@MichaelWheatley Big drama when someone else creates the same market.
I do not believe this should resolve YES yet, seems fairly minimal in scale (though it must not have been pleasant for you at all, I'm sorry for that :( )
inb4 social drama caused by people pestering Chris Olah on whether he considers this dramatic. self fulfilling forecast.
someone plz help i am getting so much LOAN MONEY that I will soon be tempted to commit MANA LOAN FRAUD.
@Spindle I am hoping that a Delaware judge doesn't order Musk to purchase Twitter so that you don't need to beg Biden for mana loan forgiveness. 🍀
@MartinRandall U know what just for that
coming to Netflix this year, the @Spindle swindler