Eigil Rischel's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -3.52
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Eigil Rischel bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
10%
20%
40%
50%
60%
- Will the phrase "effective altruism" be used in more New York Times articles over 2023 than over 2021?YESṀ10
- If I try using VS Code instead of Emacs for working on Manifold Markets, will I want to keep using it a week after I begin?NOṀ10
- Will anyone very famous claim to have made an important life decision because an AI suggested it by the end of 2023?NOṀ10
70%