This is a proposal that resolves to whatever the consensus is. I'm betting on my ability to make a convincing case! If the founders voice agreement/disagreement, it'll resolve YES/NO. Otherwise it resolves-to-PROB, beauty-contest style, post-quiescence. (That means whatever the final market probability is, that's what this resolves to, but the end date is extended until trading has quiesced.) Use case: I come across some dumb social science paper and think "ha! no way this replicates!" I would love to create a Manifold Market that's like "I will bet $100 at 9 to 1 odds that this study doesn't replicate". And then others can take me up on that and we're off to the races. Brainstorming on what's needed for that (see also http://biatob.com for inspiration): 1. Choose initial amount to stake. 2. An interface that lets you give a single initial probability if you want but optionally lets you give a probability range, so you're saying you'll bet with people who think the probability is outside this range. 3. Probably I've just described a limit order? Close date updated to 2022-07-07 8:59 am

Close date updated to 2022-08-03 11:59 pm

Close date updated to 2022-08-31 11:59 pm