Should market creation be more like offering a wager?
Jul 5
M$1,103 bet
This is a proposal that resolves to whatever the consensus is. I'm betting on my ability to make a convincing case! If the founders voice agreement/disagreement, it'll resolve YES/NO. Otherwise it resolves-to-PROB, beauty-contest style, post-quiescence. (That means whatever the final market probability is, that's what this resolves to, but the end date is extended until trading has quiesced.) Use case: I come across some dumb social science paper and think "ha! no way this replicates!" I would love to create a Manifold Market that's like "I will bet $100 at 9 to 1 odds that this study doesn't replicate". And then others can take me up on that and we're off to the races. Brainstorming on what's needed for that (see also for inspiration): 1. Choose initial amount to stake. 2. An interface that lets you give a single initial probability if you want but optionally lets you give a probability range, so you're saying you'll bet with people who think the probability is outside this range. 3. Probably I've just described a limit order?

Eigil Rischel bought M$20 of YES6 days ago

This is exactly a limit order - voting YES to "you should be able to place limit orders"

agrippa 14 days ago

that is a limit order indeed

SirSalty bought M$1 of YES14 days ago

Adding some liquidity because I think it is interesting but also because otherwise the probabilities can get kind of messed up with the starting probability being set to 99%

SirSalty 14 days ago

Funnily enough someone actually worked on a very similar concept in our hackathon! The way they differentiated this from a limit order was that instead of being based on a market the market essentially is formed from these bets. He proposed a system where you can make an initial bet with an individual (either a friend or post it publicly and wait for someone to accept ur odds). But after someone accepts other users can copy ur bet and basically make a branch off of it with the same or different odds. And from this branching out of bets create something resembling a market.

Undox bought M$1 of NO14 days ago

I agree with your idea but man you are offering nice odds on NO

Daniel Reeves 14 days ago

More thoughts: Maybe we don't want that much friction in market creation so... what if market creation always cost a penny, so near-zero liquidity, and no choice of initial probability, which is always 50%, and the first person to trade after market creation (maybe often the market creator) can make the probability be whatever they want but if people care about the question then they need to step in with limit orders or explicit liquidity provision.