This is a proposal that resolves to whatever the consensus is. I'm betting on my ability to make a convincing case! If the founders voice agreement/disagreement, it'll resolve YES/NO. Otherwise it resolves-to-PROB, beauty-contest style, post-quiescence. (That means whatever the final market probability is, that's what this resolves to, but the end date is extended until trading has quiesced.) Use case: I come across some dumb social science paper and think "ha! no way this replicates!" I would love to create a Manifold Market that's like "I will bet $100 at 9 to 1 odds that this study doesn't replicate". And then others can take me up on that and we're off to the races. Brainstorming on what's needed for that (see also http://biatob.com for inspiration): 1. Choose initial amount to stake. 2. An interface that lets you give a single initial probability if you want but optionally lets you give a probability range, so you're saying you'll bet with people who think the probability is outside this range. 3. Probably I've just described a limit order? Close date updated to 2022-07-07 8:59 am
Close date updated to 2022-08-03 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-08-31 11:59 pm
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@dreev My intuition is that it's quite different. But I guess if there was a norm around creating challenges on your own market and posting the link in the description it could be that?
Also, for me the criterion is not "will this get implemented" but "will the market/manifold approve" which is a little different.
I'm not convinced this should resolve YES
@JoyVoid When I use the Create Challenge interface, it's very much what I had in mind. https://manifold.markets/challenges/dreev/should-market-creation-be-more-like/9vj6RyIA
So I guess I'd argue that the Manifolders implementing challenge bets constitutes pretty clear agreement with the question in the title. There's just the technicality about "market creation" which was never the focus for me, as I think I made clear in the market description by describing my use case.
@dreev Last call for objections to resolving YES. I guess it will be very close to YES even if we go with resolve-to-PROB at this point.