Should market creation be more like offering a wager?
19
19
221
resolved Aug 23
Resolved
YES

This is a proposal that resolves to whatever the consensus is. I'm betting on my ability to make a convincing case! If the founders voice agreement/disagreement, it'll resolve YES/NO. Otherwise it resolves-to-PROB, beauty-contest style, post-quiescence. (That means whatever the final market probability is, that's what this resolves to, but the end date is extended until trading has quiesced.) Use case: I come across some dumb social science paper and think "ha! no way this replicates!" I would love to create a Manifold Market that's like "I will bet $100 at 9 to 1 odds that this study doesn't replicate". And then others can take me up on that and we're off to the races. Brainstorming on what's needed for that (see also http://biatob.com for inspiration): 1. Choose initial amount to stake. 2. An interface that lets you give a single initial probability if you want but optionally lets you give a probability range, so you're saying you'll bet with people who think the probability is outside this range. 3. Probably I've just described a limit order? Close date updated to 2022-07-07 8:59 am

Close date updated to 2022-08-03 11:59 pm

Close date updated to 2022-08-31 11:59 pm

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ672
2Ṁ116
3Ṁ54
4Ṁ30
5Ṁ20
Sort by:
predicted YES

The introduction of limit orders and challenge bets makes me think this should resolve YES. Any objections?

@dreev My intuition is that it's quite different. But I guess if there was a norm around creating challenges on your own market and posting the link in the description it could be that?

Also, for me the criterion is not "will this get implemented" but "will the market/manifold approve" which is a little different.

I'm not convinced this should resolve YES

predicted YES

@JoyVoid When I use the Create Challenge interface, it's very much what I had in mind. https://manifold.markets/challenges/dreev/should-market-creation-be-more-like/9vj6RyIA

So I guess I'd argue that the Manifolders implementing challenge bets constitutes pretty clear agreement with the question in the title. There's just the technicality about "market creation" which was never the focus for me, as I think I made clear in the market description by describing my use case.

predicted YES

@dreev Last call for objections to resolving YES. I guess it will be very close to YES even if we go with resolve-to-PROB at this point.

This is a limit order but also the ability to bet directly instead of adding liquidity. I'm all for it!
bought Ṁ20 of YES
This is exactly a limit order - voting YES to "you should be able to place limit orders"
that is a limit order indeed
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Adding some liquidity because I think it is interesting but also because otherwise the probabilities can get kind of messed up with the starting probability being set to 99%
Funnily enough someone actually worked on a very similar concept in our hackathon! The way they differentiated this from a limit order was that instead of being based on a market the market essentially is formed from these bets. He proposed a system where you can make an initial bet with an individual (either a friend or post it publicly and wait for someone to accept ur odds). But after someone accepts other users can copy ur bet and basically make a branch off of it with the same or different odds. And from this branching out of bets create something resembling a market.
bought Ṁ50 of YES
Oh wow this sounds awesome. Does manifold plan to transition to this somehow?
bought Ṁ10 of YES
@DavidChee this is exactly what I want for work! Very often I find myself saying 'I'll bet a pint that the issue is X' or similar. It would be cool to get an open market going on that.
predicted YES
@JohnRoxton @joy_void_joy We are planning to add 'challenge bets' soon where you can generate a link to give a specific person you want to challenge to a bet. Not exactly sure how it will work yet though but thanks for the feedback.
predicted YES
@DavidChee That sounds awesome, can't wait!
bought Ṁ1 of NO
I agree with your idea but man you are offering nice odds on NO
More thoughts: Maybe we don't want that much friction in market creation so... what if market creation always cost a penny, so near-zero liquidity, and no choice of initial probability, which is always 50%, and the first person to trade after market creation (maybe often the market creator) can make the probability be whatever they want but if people care about the question then they need to step in with limit orders or explicit liquidity provision.