Will Russia attack another country by July 1st 2022?
Basic
53
Ṁ4185
resolved Jul 21
Resolved
NO
Resolved according to my judgement. Attack means a physical attack involving weapons. Has to be a country Russia is currently not engaged in hostilities in (so continued fighting in Ukraine or CAR don't count). Am open to help operationalizing. Feb 24, 11:08am: If it were obvious to me that Russia had paid mercenaries to attack another country, and Russia were in control of those mercenaries, I would count that.
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#🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine-Russia war
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predictedNO
@DanielFilan Time to close?
predictedYES
@yngve Indeed, thanks for the reminder!
Strange, it says I have a loan of $0.
Imagine if Russia attacks Taiwan, lol
If it were obvious to me that Russia had paid mercenaries to attack another country, and Russia were in control of those mercenaries, I would count that.
Assuming mercenaries don't count.

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