Will any single trader be able to make M$100 buy buying and selling in this market?

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Ṁ9243

resolved Jun 16

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Can be $100 in one go, or adds up to $100. For example you buy NO, someone else buys a lot of NO, you sell NO, you realise the profits. The unrealized "profit" reported on the market doesn't count. This is cash out minus cash in! What I haven't made clear is what if you still have a position? Well because this is cash out minus cash in, that position is considered to be worth 0 before resolution. In my case I have the following bets: You bought M$50 of YES 4 days ago You bought M$100 of YES 3 days ago You bought M$80 of YES 3 days ago You sold M$325 of YES 9 minutes ago You bought M$10 of NO 7 minutes ago I have made 325 - 50 - 100 - 80 - 10 = $85 So my bets won't resolve this If I sell by NO for $16 I have made 325 + 16 - 50 - 100 - 80 - 10 = $101 Then I will resolve this yes. (This is not a change, just logically interpreting the rules given for clarity)

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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27 Comments

15 Holders

56 Trades

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predicted NO

Looks like fun was had, so here is another one: https://manifold.markets/Undox/round-2-will-any-single-trader-be-a

predicted NO

Should have bought more, if M$4 gave me that much :D

@JoyVoid but then undox would have made m100 buying and selling...

predicted NO

@MartinRandall @JoyVoid yeah it was a delicate balance. Buy enough to make bank if indeed the answer was no, but not enough to push the probability down enough for someone holding NO to then sell and get their profits over M$100.

predicted NO

@MattP i mean, my whole goal was to buy to resell later :D ... I think M$ 10 would have been fine, but it's a recursive problem indeed

predicted NO

Will resolve soon. I need to use api to get bettors

predicted NO

Homeslice. The suspense is killing me here.

predicted NO

@Undox any timeline on resolving this?

predicted NO

@Undox assuming you're still planning on waiting til bets are public to resolve this? I've got my fingers crossed....

predicted NO

@MattP I am sure it is NO but going to check when the public bets come out

predicted NO

@Undox looks like the public market page betting history is out for new bets, but I'd assume it isn't happening for old bets. Not sure how you want to handle this..

predicted NO

Also: notice the chart now spells M M

For fun I have bet 10 NO. If the prob goes down enough for me to make M$6, and I remember, I will sell to make the profit, to make this resolve YES.

@Undox are you resolving this immediately after you successfully make a profit, or waiting til close date?

Made 95 so far, not the ideal 100.

As of right now I would make M$101.

@BTE you need to realize it before market close...

I made m5, m100 is a long way off.

Buying for the same reason as @MartinRandall, and if someone sticks $1k on YES and I see it, I will sell my stake here for a profit to help towards that YES.

predicted YES

Of course I might be asleep and the NO gang can take advantage, so at your risk. Hopefully another YES person can help.

Buying yes because someone can make a paper profit with an alt account or with a friend.

Imagine how much easier this would be to resolve and reason about with public bets!

How do you plan to verify this in order to resolve it correctly?

@MattP it says "Bets are becoming publicly visible on 2022-06-01" so I can wait for that (2 days after closing). If that doesn't work I can look at the __NEXT_DATA__ in the page source, or similar, and see what happened there. But I would prefer to use the UI if I can.

Seems easy to check even now because after resolving, you can see the traders with the highest profits.

Wait nvm lol that's only visible after resolving.

predicted YES

@Undox Seems like bets aren't actually becoming public after all....

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