26. Will the medical establishment reverse course and officially say that any of Vitamin D, HCQ, or ivermectin is actually effective against COVID by the end of 2022?

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resolved Feb 1

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From Scott Alexander's COVID predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

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Prognosis unlikely.

predictedYES

Scott issues a correction to his previous ivermectin post in today's open thread ( https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/open-thread-227 ) referencing this post ( https://doyourownresearch.substack.com/p/scott-alexander-corrects-error-ivermectin ). Obviously, this has only minimal bearing on what the medical establishment thinks.

Unlikely, but a lot more likely than 3% lol.

Ivermectin via deworming is worth a few percent.

This is a question about the medical establishment, not about whether Ivermectin (or Vitamin D) is "actually effective against COVID". And ... neither IVM nor D are effective enough that the medical establishment is going to "reverse course" that quickly. (HCQ actually doesn't work at all.)

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