26. Will the medical establishment reverse course and officially say that any of Vitamin D, HCQ, or ivermectin is actually effective against COVID by the end of 2022?
ACX 2022 Predictions
66
274
Ṁ703
resolved Feb 1
Resolved
NO
From Scott Alexander's COVID predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
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Prognosis unlikely.

predicted YES
Scott issues a correction to his previous ivermectin post in today's open thread ( https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/open-thread-227 ) referencing this post ( https://doyourownresearch.substack.com/p/scott-alexander-corrects-error-ivermectin ). Obviously, this has only minimal bearing on what the medical establishment thinks.
bought Ṁ10 of YES
Unlikely, but a lot more likely than 3% lol.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Ivermectin via deworming is worth a few percent.
bought Ṁ20 of NO
This is a question about the medical establishment, not about whether Ivermectin (or Vitamin D) is "actually effective against COVID". And ... neither IVM nor D are effective enough that the medical establishment is going to "reverse course" that quickly. (HCQ actually doesn't work at all.)

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