Will there be 1,000,000 diagnosed cases of monkeypox in 2022?
42
133Ṁ5670
resolved Jan 11
Resolved
NO

Whether the 2022 calendar year will have seen >= 1,000,000 new, diagnosed cases of monkeypox. Count ends on December 31st, 23:59 GMT.

Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

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predictedNO

@huot3000 please resolve

predictedNO

With quadrupling every month, and at 32 000 cases, it'll take four months to get there, assuming no change in speed. I think this leaves enough room for reaction?
100 000 seems a lost cause though

predictedYES
Phil, was your original intent when you created this market to Close it on June 26? What caused you to select that date as Close?
@JoeBrenton No real thinking went into it. Picked an arbitrary closing date - thought about having it later but wanted to incentivize *predictions* before the fact.
predictedNO

@huot3000 They should be properly incentivized in the current betting framework. Unlike in the free-answer markets, you don't lose prospective payout if the price gets bid up to 100 after you place your YES bet.

@MichaelWheatley Makes sense - thanks!

predictedNO

(you can reopen the market by changing the closing date if you wish)

There is a monkeypox vaccine available that is highly effective. It can be administered to close contacts relatively easily.
Metaculus's distibution estimates 17,000 avg and P(x > 1 mil) = 11% metaculus.com/questions/10976/total-estimated-monkeypox-infections-in-2022/
@Sinclair But how many of those cases will be diagnosed? I suspect that the estimated number of cases will be much higher than the number of confirmed cases
Disease has been around a long time, and only spreading in rather promiscuous circles. May just be availability bias rather than a new strain, and if R0 would above 1 from normal daily contact there would be at least *some* cases outside those circles.
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