Will there be 1,000,000 diagnosed cases of monkeypox in 2022?

Ṁ5.7K

Ṁ133

resolved Jan 11

Resolved

ALL

Whether the 2022 calendar year will have seen >= 1,000,000 new, diagnosed cases of monkeypox. Count ends on December 31st, 23:59 GMT.

Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ100
2		Ṁ90
3		Ṁ51
4		Ṁ44
5		Ṁ43

11 Comments

27 Holders

266 Trades

Sort by:

predicted NO

@huot3000 please resolve

predicted NO

With quadrupling every month, and at 32 000 cases, it'll take four months to get there, assuming no change in speed. I think this leaves enough room for reaction?
100 000 seems a lost cause though

predicted YES

Phil, was your original intent when you created this market to Close it on June 26? What caused you to select that date as Close?

@JoeBrenton No real thinking went into it. Picked an arbitrary closing date - thought about having it later but wanted to incentivize *predictions* before the fact.

predicted NO

@huot3000 They should be properly incentivized in the current betting framework. Unlike in the free-answer markets, you don't lose prospective payout if the price gets bid up to 100 after you place your YES bet.

@MichaelWheatley Makes sense - thanks!

predicted NO

(you can reopen the market by changing the closing date if you wish)

bought Ṁ100 of NO

There is a monkeypox vaccine available that is highly effective. It can be administered to close contacts relatively easily.

Metaculus's distibution estimates 17,000 avg and P(x > 1 mil) = 11% metaculus.com/questions/10976/total-estimated-monkeypox-infections-in-2022/

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@Sinclair But how many of those cases will be diagnosed? I suspect that the estimated number of cases will be much higher than the number of confirmed cases

bought Ṁ6 of NO

Disease has been around a long time, and only spreading in rather promiscuous circles. May just be availability bias rather than a new strain, and if R0 would above 1 from normal daily contact there would be at least *some* cases outside those circles.