Background
Coups d'état remain a significant threat to political stability in various regions around the world. Recent years have seen a concerning uptick in successful coups, particularly in West Africa and the Sahel region, often referred to as the "Coup Belt." Since 2020, countries including Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Sudan have experienced military takeovers.
Several factors increase a country's vulnerability to coups:
Weak democratic institutions
Economic instability and high inequality
Military dissatisfaction
History of previous coups
Regional contagion effects
Political polarization
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to any country that experiences a successful coup d'état during the 2025 calendar year (January 1, 2025 - December 31, 2025). A coup will be considered "successful" if:
The existing institutions are unlawfully removed from power through non-democratic means (self-coups apply)
The new regime maintains control for at least 24 hours (one day)
The event is widely recognized by international media and political analysts as a coup d'état
Multiple countries may resolve as YES if they each experience a successful coup during 2025.
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Madagascar army unit says it has taken power after weeks of protest - https://on.ft.com/4nUr0j8 via @FT
@TheAllMemeingEye good point. But I think a undemocratic regime change can happen, and would qualify as coup by the resolution criteria
@TheAllMemeingEye I think in this case wouldn't qualify for the condition 3:
The event is widely recognized by international media and political analysts as a coup d'état
@FranklinBaldo but that leads back to my first point, where I'm not sure it's even possible for something to happen that media and political analysts would call a coup because a coup has already happened