@CelebratedWhale what leads you to believe there has been atleast 1 death?

@mint Perhaps they are counting the 16 killed prior to market creation. If so though, the market really shouldn't have started with zero as an option, this has obviously led people to assume the strike on the embassy was not included.

@chrisjbillington I would hope this isn't the case as even the market creator was trading (buying/selling) on the zero option prior to yesterday. It wouldn't be right to make that determination at the last minute and convienently cash in. Hopefully the creator can clarify.

@mint I was just being lazy and assumed that there must've been a death based on the other votes. I won't count the 16 before. Kind of unfortunate as if I'd held the 0 I'd have profited a lot but whatever

It's already in the thousands.

@MaybeNotDepends Proxies don't count

@CelebratedWhale you will want to define "hostilities ending". It's very hard to define, since many conflicts become frozen ones.

You could say that it's when Wikipedia no longer lists it as "Status: Ongoing", or perhaps simply set a date at which the market will resolve regardless of whether the conflict is ongoing. Otherwise this market will be difficult to bet on!

Furthermore, and this might be personal preference to some extent, I think unlinked multiple choice markets are the superior option for questions like this, with the answers being "at least 100", "at least 200", etc. That way they can resolve early, which will be increasingly important to traders when we don't get loans anymore a few weeks from now.

@chrisjbillington Fair points, I'll come up with a better resolution mechanism shortly

@CelebratedWhale Resolves when there is a 14 day period in which there are no direct strikes from Israel or Iran on the other countries territory

@CelebratedWhale Great, that seems like a good definition. You should add it to the description.