Will any university announce a divestment from Israel by June 2024?
resolved Jun 14
I put up some Yes buy orders for anyone who wants to get freaky. I’ll stop spamming now.
Are the protests going to start having the desired effect?

Context: College Protesters Make Divestment From Israel a Rallying Cry

Universities have so far rebuffed exhortations to divest. Defenders of Israel say these calls are unfair to a country that is under threat of attack, and antisemitic because they target the only Jewish-majority nation in the world. That’s a long-running accusation against the “boycott, divestment, sanctions” movement targeting the country.

One often-cited example took place in the 1980s, targeting companies that did business with South Africa, which was under apartheid rule. Columbia made headlines when it sold $39 million of stock it held in companies including Coca-Cola, Ford Motor and Mobil Oil following weeks of sit-in protests from students on its campus.

Will any US college announce plans to divest from Israel, in response to protests by June (assumed to be the end of the school year)?

Announcements from university presidents or boards here will count, even if the divestment does not begin by June (i.e. “we will begin divesting from Israel-supporting stocks in 2024” would Resolve YES).

Get Ṁ600 play money
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I will beg MattyB to look at this, when I have a chance to show him (he's here at Manifest)

@Gen He says @Joshua will enjoy resolving it

Celebrity gif. DJ Khaled sits with a bowl of popcorn in front of him. He stares at something almost like he’s entranced as he shovels handfuls of popcorn into his mouth.

Having looked at the comments, I think there are enough messy clarifications that traders have been reasonably operating under different assumptions depending on whether they waded through all these comments. IMO this resolves NO based on the description, and maybe YES based on the clarifications in the comments but it's a very messy yes. Those clarifications were never added to the description, and really should have been.

Overall, there's no answer I'd feel confident defending as definitely correct so I am planning to cancel the question and return all mana spent.

I’m assuming it means end of June?

@PredictordudeT when it says "by date" it's either by the end of date or by the start of date. in this case with the close date is may 31st, so I'm pretty sure it's meant to be taken as "before june"


Ok I was a bit confused as it was unresolved 6/3

bought Ṁ10 NO

@Panfilo Sometimes I am sensing from you a little bit of undertones of the jew hate? Now maybe I am wrong about it, I pray, but I am asking for you to consider how you are trading because I am not always liking it!

Interesting article: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/17/us/campus-protests-agreements-divestment-israel.html

No university agreed outright to divestment [from Israel], which was the rallying cry of student protests across the country.

I know @mattyb you're burnt out on this question, but would still appreciate an update or a decision to defer to mods.

@DanMan314 NYT are either wrong or are doing the university vs. college weasel wording that Matty graciously clarified he would not be doing earlier in the comments.

@Panfilo I think the distinction NYT is drawing is divestment specifically from Israel like FoxKHTML pointed out, although it doesn't seem(?) like matty cares about that for this market.

@DanMan314 My issue there, parallel to this market, is that divestment from Israel has an incoherent definition from some people (even the official BDS movement is still cagey on the whole Starbucks thing that some more ignorant protestors glommed onto) and is very explicitly tied to the conflict with Palestine by others. The discussion and context of this market seems clearly much closer to the latter type.

I know @mattyb you're burnt out on this question, but would still appreciate an update or a decision to defer to mods.

Matty is off the site atm—this will have to be resolved by a mod, so might as well try and convince one to give an interpretation/ruling now to avoid the bigger headaches.

@mods hit us up

idk about this topic, but closed the market before the resolution is clarified, any mods takers?

@Bayesian Are we thinkin it'll be one mod or a council of three?

@Panfilo imo in this case 1 person would be enough, as long as that person knows about this topic. but if the mod that first takes it over judges that 3 would be better, they are free to

“Divestment from companies profiting from the war” DOES NOT EQUAL “Divestment from Israeli companies” and it certainly does not equal “divestment from companies doing business in Israel”. The most famously boycotted companies are Starbucks and Coca Cola. Neither are being divested from.

Would be a travesty if this market resolves yes.

@FoxKHTML The most recent post from Matty took issue only with the commitment and timeline of divestments, not with them being exclusively and exhaustively anti-Israel to the point of including Starbucks. Since that post, committed divestment decisions have been made, hence the high Yes.

bought Ṁ150 YES

Union Seminary (effectively a college of Columbia that has its own endowment) has voted Yes on divesting from Israel.


@Panfilo I think this is the wrong link?

@Panfilo This seems quite different from "divestment from Israel" as the targets are "companies profiting from war in Palestine/Israel", quoting the title.

So the board would hypothetically endorse divestment from a Saudi company that sells oils to Hamas, but not an Israeli consumer tech company.

@CLI This sounds like a deliberate misreading of the spirit of the market, the goals of the protestors, and the effect of the policy. UTS's action may well also include divestment from some non-Israeli companies, but is clearly intended to for example divest from military industrial suppliers of Israel's side of the conflict. It's a core objective of the BDS movement, and the market does not state or imply exclusivity of this sort of outcome.

@Panfilo What are the protestors stating in their goals?

@CLI UTS is part of Columbia. The Columbia protestors kicked off the large scale protest movement and are the most well-documented protestors in the country regarding the movement in question. This divestment was in response to them.

@Panfilo UTS is not part of Columbia; they are an affiliate of Columbia. Columbia has no control over them as they are separate legal entities.

@xyz The above point about Columbia was regarding which student protests the school was responding to. Indeed, the fact that they are technically an affiliate is why they are a separate enough college to have their own endowment.

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