@JamesF how would you define “war ends”? This is now a frozen conflict with a ceasefire in place. The war has effectively ended.

@Lemming They will declare that it ended after the death toll reaches 150K+.

@Lemming The ceasefire is de-jure. The war is still going on, just lower intensity.

@FecalAbhuman it’s the same type of people that would say that the war started a hundred years ago.

I wouldn’t expect a fair resolution in this market.

@gpt4 well the conflict started nearly a hundred years ago, but I view it as the specific war being Oct 7th onwards, and still ongoing. The "ceasefire" is just an agreement to fire less. People are still being bombed every day in Gaza, in open violation of the terms.

@FecalAbhuman so why start counting on October 7 if a ceasefire is meaningless? All this definition does is make this market politically biased and useless. I suggest @JamesF makes the war ending criteria clear and fair, or this will end up as a disputed marketplace.

@JamesF reopen?

Another attempt at tallying this came to 680,000: Skewering History: The Odious Politics of Counting Gaza’s Dead

@ScottW It's not 680K come on, this is propaganda.

I believe the real scale of the death toll can't be evaluated until at least most of the wreckage has been removed. Who knows how many dead bodies are buried under the rubble. I am yet to see a reliable estimate by anyone who (based on census records) can give an estimate of people who are missing presumably dead

@JamesF when will you consider the "end of the war"?

The death toll remains under 90,000 still, and "indirect death tolls" like the ones described in the Lancet article below are not really a serious measure of the death toll of a modern conflict. The wikipedia consensus has the total death toll in Gaza and other fronts of the conflict (Yemen, Lebanon) at under 90k: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_war

@bens The ceasefire and a return to something approaching normalcy will allow accounts of the dead and missing to be verified and many more will turn up in the rubble-clearing work.

@Chumchulum Probably lots of "missing" people have fled to Egypt. Spagat et al estimated below 100K deaths.

@bens indirect deaths are serious. It is used by peer-reviewed journals. The Lancet is one of the highest IF journals.

@nathanwei The Egyptian Army guards its borders with Gaza almost as strictly as the IDF. Did such a gargantuan scale of human trafficking take place that it could be mistaken for the effects of the (coincidentally concurrent) carpet bombing and hunger siege campaigns! Please read The Lancet's report. Otherwise this is spurious.

Article: The grim arithmetic: IDF data reveals 377,000 Palestinians unaccounted for

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)01169-3/fulltext

"In recent conflicts, such indirect deaths range from three to 15 times the number of direct deaths. Applying a conservative estimate of four indirect deaths per one direct death9 to the 37 396 deaths reported, it is not implausible to estimate that up to 186 000 or even more deaths could be attributable to the current conflict in Gaza."

@JamesF Could you specify whether 'death toll' for this market includes everyone dying as the result of the war?

@JamesF ping

One month after a formal ceasefire and withdrawal is nowhere near long enough to begin to actually assess the carnage and destruction. Gaza has been quite literally leveled. People are dead in unmarked graves, under rubble, in hospitals, in Israeli prisons, in mass graves, and on the streets. Others have been taken hostage, fled, or even kidnapped. I would hope you extend the resolution date considerably account for all this.

OCHA says it could take three years to retrieve the estimated 10,000 bodies buried under rubble.

This is 3 times the number of estimated Hamas fighters at the beginning of the war...

Civilians count.

Yea, just giving proportion to the number.