Will the Gaza death toll be over 150,000 at the end of the Israel-Hamas war
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Jan 1
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I will wait for at least a month after the war ends to try and get more reliable data. I reserve the right to extend the resolve date until reliable data is available.

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bought Ṁ250 NO

The death toll remains under 90,000 still, and "indirect death tolls" like the ones described in the Lancet article below are not really a serious measure of the death toll of a modern conflict. The wikipedia consensus has the total death toll in Gaza and other fronts of the conflict (Yemen, Lebanon) at under 90k: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_war

@bens The ceasefire and a return to something approaching normalcy will allow accounts of the dead and missing to be verified and many more will turn up in the rubble-clearing work.

@Chumchulum Probably lots of "missing" people have fled to Egypt. Spagat et al estimated below 100K deaths.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)01169-3/fulltext

"In recent conflicts, such indirect deaths range from three to 15 times the number of direct deaths. Applying a conservative estimate of four indirect deaths per one direct death9 to the 37 396 deaths reported, it is not implausible to estimate that up to 186 000 or even more deaths could be attributable to the current conflict in Gaza."

@JamesF Could you specify whether 'death toll' for this market includes everyone dying as the result of the war?

@JamesF ping

One month after a formal ceasefire and withdrawal is nowhere near long enough to begin to actually assess the carnage and destruction. Gaza has been quite literally leveled. People are dead in unmarked graves, under rubble, in hospitals, in Israeli prisons, in mass graves, and on the streets. Others have been taken hostage, fled, or even kidnapped. I would hope you extend the resolution date considerably account for all this.

OCHA says it could take three years to retrieve the estimated 10,000 bodies buried under rubble.

bought Ṁ817 NO

This is 3 times the number of estimated Hamas fighters at the beginning of the war...

Civilians count.

bought Ṁ19 NO

Yea, just giving proportion to the number.

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