Resolves based on reliable media reports of any ceasefire agreement reached before the end of May, local time in Israel.

The ceasefire need not begin, merely be reported on as having been agreed to. Not "in principle agreement" or anything weaker, but unambiguous reporting establishing a final agreement has been reached between Israel and Hamas. It can be a temporary ceasefire or "humanitarian pause" of any duration, or a permanent ceasefire.

Resolves "YES ceasefire agreed, YES Israel agrees to withdraw" if the agreement is described by reliable reports as entailing a "full", "complete", "comprehensive"—or other words to that effect—withdrawal of Israeli forces from the entirety of the Gaza strip. It does not matter when the withdrawal is to begin or how long it is to last, or whether there are good reasons to expect it to actually happen or not, as long as it is part a ceasefire agreement reached.

A unilateral withdrawal for reasons other than a ceasefire agreement does not count.

Resolves "YES ceasefire agreed, NO Israel doesn't agree to withdraw" if a ceasefire deal does not contain an agreement for Israel to fully withdraw.

Resolves "No ceasefire agreement in May" if there is no ceasefire agreement.

If there are multiple ceasefire agreements agreed to in May, this market is only about the first one.