Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?
99
1kṀ59k
resolved Oct 17
Resolved
NO

See the question and its resolution criteria on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14899/1000-deaths-from-israeliran-conflict/

This question will resolve as Yes if, for the years 2023 and 2024 combined, the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) reports 1,000 or more state-based conflict deaths for the Iran-Israel conflict (specifically, the category "state-based violence"). The 1,000 deaths need not occur in a single year. We will defer to UCDP's methodology in calculating conflict deaths.

If UCDP does not report data for 2023 and 2024, the question resolves as Ambiguous

  • Update 2025-07-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - New resolution date: August 1, 2025.

    • Market is reopened until this date.

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@AVS the Metaculus market has resolved NO

@mods could you please resolve this? Creator does not seem to be very active

@skibidist (a little bit) free mana

bought Ṁ1,000 NO

@Shai it keeps giving

I just noticed that the scheduled resolution date on Metaculus is set to August 1, 2025. I am reopening the market until this date.

Waiting for a resolution on the original question on Metaculus.

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