Will the death toll in the current Israel-Palestinian conflict reach 100,000?
23
1.8k
2026
23%
chance

Numbers will be based off of the death toll from October 7, 2023 and on.

If this conflict reaches 100,000 fatalities (on both sides, including civilians) this market resolves as YES.

If this conflict ends (I realize "ends" is a tricky resolution critera in this case see below for my definition) before it reaches 100,000 fatalities, this market resolves as NO.


Definition of End:

This will be determined based on an extended/permenent ceasefire in the region. Short term ceasefires for aid and negotiations will not count as an end to the conflict. This is ambiguious (sort of on purpose) because the region never truly feels at peace, so this little wiggle room will mainly be used to include long term or multi year ceasefire.

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I’d be interested in critique and comment on my reasoning here.

I anchor my expectations in this report attempting to project Palestine death rates over from 7th February to 6th August: https://gaza-projections.org.

The question is which scenario is Gaza in (cease fire, status quo or escalation) and within that, potential possible outcomes. It seems highly likely, given the state of domestic Israeli politics, that we are in an escalation scenario with a Rafah invasion imminent (although let’s see). And within the each scenario we are dealing with very fat-tailed distributions of mortality due to the risk of epidemics. For example, while the mean mortality estimate for the escalation scenario without epidemics is ~75, 000, the upper 95% bound with pandemics is over 200 000.

Accordingly, forecasting this question seems to involve balancing a more likely linear progression against all smaller chance of an exponential process taking hold (roughly, epidemics, or, much less likely, widening or conflict into Lebanon or Iran). The opposite could also take place — the government falls and a hostage deal ends the conflict, although  the dominant alternative is Ganz who is quite hawkish.

Without any sophisticated method, and taking into account the linked projection was only to August (and, of course, the conflict could go longer), it seems around ~20-30% seems right for this question?

predicts NO

Do Lebanese / Hezbollah deaths count?

@Haws can you clarify this? ditto for Iranian casualties.

@EdBarth To clarify how the resolution will be determined:

Any recorded casualties to this Wiki page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war

The death toll I would assume includes Iran but their 7 casualties do not seem to be noted in this article.

Currently the chart (which is updated every 5 days) is showing roughly 34,000 deaths as of May 4:


Hopefully that clears up the resolution criteria - if need be I will independently research each country that may have deaths associated (humanitarian to military, if it can be linked to this conflict it will be added to the death toll for this question).

So that will include Lebanese fighters at the boarder, Yemeni casualties, Iranian, or any other countries that join the conflict.

I know that makes this question pretty nebulous, but it is in line with the spirit of the question.

Let me know if we need more clarity.

@Haws Perfect! Thanks!

Will you be counting deaths from contagious disease due to impaired sanitation and lack of medical supplies?

@PrivatePrivate any deaths that can be directly linked to this conflict will count. Including what you mentioned.

  • Deaths in hospitals due to lack of resources

  • famine

  • Combat

  • Etc.

This would be 5% of the population of Gaza.

@toms the death toll would include anyone involved in the conflict. Israel, Gaza, Westbank, reporters, other nations or groups which enter.

predicts NO

@Haws Understood, but I strongly expect that a significant majority of the deaths in the conflict from now on will be Gazans.

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