Will this [Major Market] Resolve YES? (gauging resolve NA or %'s probability)
16
185
1.5K
2026
95%
Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024? https://manifold.markets/BruceGrugett/will-donald-trump-be-the-republican
66%
Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking? https://manifold.markets/memestiny/will-andrew-tate-be-found-guilty-of
57%
Will the average global temperature in 2024 exceed 2023? https://manifold.markets/SteveRabin/will-the-average-global-temperature
44%
Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-ai-be-a-major-topic-during-the
44%
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before 2030? https://manifold.markets/cy/will-donald-trump-serve-any-prison
41%
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener
39%
33%
Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by 2025 end? https://manifold.markets/firstuserhere/will-openai-hint-at-or-claim-to-hav
33%
In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion? https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-ai-be-at-least-as-big
32%
By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population? https://manifold.markets/NathanNguyen/by-end-of-2028-will-ai-be-considere
22%
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025? https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat
7%
Will the Meissner effect be confirmed near room temperature in copper-substituted lead apatite? https://manifold.markets/postjawline/will-the-meissner-effect-be-confirm
3%
Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025? https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre

This market helps us assess
1. Ambiguity in the question statement and descriptions of the major markets.
2. Unexpected scenarios that makes a clear resolve difficult.
3. Probability of event not happening in conditional markets

(In short, this market helps us assess the probability of a market resolving NA or any percentage other than 100%)

To give a few examples:
Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (could resolve NA if whether AI is a major topic ends up being debatable, despite the clearly listed criteria by Matthew Barnett)
By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population? (could resolve NA or 50% if undecided)
Will GPT-5 be released before 2025? (ambiguity if GPT released a new version but changed its name)
Will the Meissner effect be confirmed near room temperature in copper-substituted lead apatite? (resolution unclear if the scientific strong but not overwhelming)



Each individual listed market resolves YES if the corresponding major market resolves YES.
Each individual listed market resolves NO if the corresponding major market resolves NO, NA or any percent less than 100%.

[Kindly let me know in the comments if you think a certain market should be added here to provide useful information about joint probability of Biden winning]



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Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024? https://manifold.markets/BruceGrugett/will-donald-trump-be-the-republican

The linked market is not the same as the headline here

@june thanks for the hint