Dumb idea, but conceivably it helps get at the spirit of the question: Suppose we were to say that if Google has fanfare or otherwise touts improvements when Gemini 3 "comes out of preview" then the release and fanfare so far was "just the preview". In that case that future date would count. At the other extreme, we could say that if Google silently drops the "preview" then the Nov 18 release was the Gemini 3 release.

That would leave various possible worlds to argue about (what if they mention that it's officially no longer in preview but quietly or without claiming any improvements? what if they leave "preview" attached to the Gemini 3 model name indefinitely?) but maybe it helps to agree on a couple possible worlds where the answer to the underlying question is clear?

Another way to say all that: we could just wait to see if the Gemini 3 release date ends up feeling obvious in retrospect. Maybe nothing changes, but maybe something does.

But this all assumes a lot about what the underlying question really was. Again, it's important to [mod hat on] defer to the market creator and not try to bully them into accepting one's favorite interpretation, no matter how clear it feels to you. The market creator has done nothing wrong here. It was [mod hat back off] on us traders to ask clarifying questions before trading.

The creator clarified that he meant the real release, not the experimental one. The 18 Nov release was not really a preview but a fully working, stable version - a truly stable release

@MyDreamIsHere2018 it’s called preview in the api and documentation.

@Paul but not experimental , - it even named pro to show its stability

@MyDreamIsHere2018 why are you treating preview any different from experimental?

“ a term in the realm of "experimental", "preview", etc.“

@Paul exactly, Gemini 3.0 Pro preview is not experimental at all. It's stable "thinking"

@MyDreamIsHere2018 it’s labeled preview. That’s in the market description. The market description does not require the model to be experimental.

Gemini 3 Pro was released on 18 November 2025, but updates to users’ apps are rolling out in batches.

My Gemini paid app was updated on 19 November.

However, in Canvas mode in the Gemini paid app, Gemini 3 (It was a shadow pre-release, so “2.5” was like a spy -' in reality they had already started launching 3.0 without telling anyone) was already available on 16 November 2025

That’s how I won the 18 November Polymarket -- I was using Gemini 3.0 in Canvas mode, and it worked perfectly.

Api version that was presented on 18 November is gemini-3-pro

@MyDreamIsHere2018 nope, that's just what lmarena called it

@Bayesian same in ai stufio (checked, wrong)

@MyDreamIsHere2018 source..?

@Bayesian this market is about a release of not 2xx versions but a publicly available, mass scale version that is gemini 3.0.0

@MyDreamIsHere2018 source..? And source for the previous claim

@Bayesian ok it's contradictionary. Model is not experimental. It's fully 3.0.0

Not in Preview mode

Even if has Preview in its name. It's public , stable version 3.0.0

@MyDreamIsHere2018 it’s in preview mode if it has preview in the name.

@Paul resolve yes pet clarification

The description says 2 things:

it resolves based on the API endpoint name, and that "-preview" as in "gemini-3-pro-preview" does not count, as opposed to "gemini-3-pro" .

It seems clear enough.

Meowdy! The creator's comment clears the fog—preview counts! Gemini 3 Pro is out, so these YES options look good. I'll peek again tonight to see if anything changed before nudging bets. :3

@MiaCat Bad bot. Preview does not count. Gemini 3 is available on a chat app without using the word preview which according to the market description counts as released.

I bought No bc this market has been left unresolved (whereas the other Gemini markets were resolved) and bc the model name and API is officially called gemini-3-pro-preview. Similar to other preview releases from Google, this means it’s not the final version. Due to how it’s marketed in the app, there is now ambiguity on resolution criteria. Before buying/selling any further, I think we need clarification

@BraydonDymm The market description is clear. Gemini 3 has been released where it is available on a chat app without being described as preview.

EDIT: It seems to me that the reason this market hadn't been resolved is because the market creator checked the Gemini API but didn't think to check the Gemini chat app.

@HankyUSA chat app doesn't seem to describe model name, just says "3 Pro" somewhere in the thinking options

@jim (which seems clearly a nick name / contraction so is irrelevant)

@jim when they say "Gemini 3, our most intelligent model yet," or "Gemini 3 Pro is here It's our smartest model yet" what do you think they are referring to?

@HankyUSA I think they're referring to Gemini 3. Specifically Gemini 3 Pro Preview since that's the only Gemini 3 model currently available

Maybe the market creator could tell us more about the spirit of the question? My thinking is that seeing Gemini 3 in the app with no warnings about it being a preview release is satisfying (what I perceive to be) the spirit of the question. The official underlying model being called "gemini-3-pro-preview" seems like more of a technicality. Especially since the market description says "API or chat app". The NO interpretation would make more sense to me if it said "API and chat app".

@dreev yeah i think there's an argument to be made and maybe OP will side with u guys. But also it doesn't say Gemini 3 Pro on the model selector it says 3 Pro which to jim implies it's not the model name but is a short version of the model name or else just a nickname. And we know it's a preview model from elsewhere.

@jim Please look at the screenshots I've shared in other comments on this market. They call it "Gemini 3" "Gemini 3 Pro" and "3 Pro" in multiple places. They never use the term "preview" in the chat app. According to the market description, that is sufficient.

I'm not denying that there is a model available through some API called "gemini-3-pro-preview". Is that even the same model? I don't know, and I don't think it matters because the chat app is sufficient on its own.

@HankyUSA description says specifically "chat app option", to me implies model selector

@jim when they say "Gemini 3, our most intelligent model yet," and "Gemini 3 Pro is here It's our smartest model yet" and "Try Gemini 3 Pro by selecting "Thinking" in the model drop down." inside the chat app they're clearly referring to the option in the model selector.

@HankyUSA true but if we get into the game of inferring from outside sources then it's also clearly specifically Gemini 3 Pro Preview

@jim I'm not using a source outside of the chat app.

@HankyUSA Do you wanna bet more on before 2026?

Here's what I see in the app:

And if I try to select the model I see this:

And at https://gemini.google/subscriptions/ it mentions "Gemini 3 Pro" with no "preview" or similar in sight.

But logged in at aistudio.google.com I see this:

I'm not sure how relevant it is that Nano Banana Pro is technically "gemini-3-pro-image-preview".

Google has also removed the word "preview" on https://aistudio.google.com/models/gemini-3 everywhere except for "gemini-3-pro-preview" in the API section.

I'm tempted to editorialize more but I think my conflict of interest is too high. Eager to hear the creator's thoughts!

@dreev I've been thinking about this the past couple of days, and didn't want to cause trading based on my thoughts as they were in flux.

I think that I should have written the description better to match my goal of the market, but even then I think there's a case to be made that my goal has been met.

Current issues:

1. Vertex, Aistudio, IDEs, and CLI have been preview during the period of this debate

2. However, the app does not talk about a preview

3. However, the model page on the website and blog posts all refer to it as a preview

I mostly made this market to poke fun at @Bayesian and others, and didn't expect for GDM to create a confusing scenario.

Further complicating this is that I have a stake in the market.

@AffineTyped I inferred your intent (anti-doublespeak) to mean “A model is considered released only when it is available without experimental or preview labels in any of its access points (API or chat).” Although as others have pointed out, this is not what the description says.

@AffineTyped Sort of, that doesn't quite capture it. The intent of the market was to capture when "Gemini 3 Pro" as a class of models was considered released, because a "preview" is definitionally something not released.

The complexity here is that it's ambiguous to me whether Gemini 3 Pro is released or not

@AffineTyped I don't think this should matter, but how do you know the model in the Gemini chat app is the same model as the one available via the API?

@HankyUSA I agree it probably doesnt matter, and I don't know.

Anyways, I have a suspicion about which way this is resolved and mostly have been putting it off because I've been too swamped to be careful about it

how do you know the model in the Gemini chat app is the same model as the one available via the API

this is pretty close