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No one has said they want me to wait, so I'm resolving this to NO now.

It is (somewhat) plausible that GPT-4 resolves this yes (they only published the overall score). I am willing to leave this market unresolved for a few months in case we get additional information - does anyone particularly want me to do that?

@vluzko If GPT-4 improves SOTA to above 85%, but does so after June, should this market resolve YES? Reading the title, that sounds like NO to me. (disclaimer: I do hold NO shares)

@FlorisvanDoorn That's not quite what I mean: GPT-4 has already been run on MMLU, but only the overall score has been published. If GPT-4 has improved SOTA it has already done so, it just hasn't been published. The question is whether I should wait to see if that information gets published. I am inclined not to wait because I think the information probably won't get published and that GPT-4 probably didn't actually improve SOTA enough to change the market, but I know some people prefer markets resolve later than they close to allow for more information to come out.

Short-Term AI #1: By the end of June 2023, will SOTA on MMLU STEM be >=85%?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition