Short-Term AI #5: By the end of June 2023, will there be a usable AI assistant that interfaces with keyboard and mouse?
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resolved Jul 1
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NO
  • It does not need to only use keyboard and mouse, but that should be a substantial part of its interaction

  • Not necessarily a physical keyboard and mouse.

  • Usable: at least some people prefer having it to not having it

  • Should not be restricted to any particular program (e.g. only usable in the browser)

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predicted YES

Does anyone have any news or info on this?

Had 2 fascinating discussions lately on this topic.

Duplicated this market for EOY timeline.

(1000M subsidized)

https://www.augment.co/ is closer, but it isn't quite what was specified here.

Would "restricted to remote desktop" count?

bought Ṁ35 of NO

actually, I don't think this one is going to happen by june. too little training data. the general AIs that try it are gonna turn out to have a lot of learning to do before they're ready. might be wrong, we'll see. it's only march. but I suspect "usable" is the dealbreaker word here. I would be unsurprised to see more research projects.

bought Ṁ40 of NO

@L of course, maybe GPT4 can already do it. I believe in ya, bot friendo! prove me wrong! but I suspect that usable interactivity on a computer will have a higher rate of annoying out of distribution surprise than hoped.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

@osmarks ACT does not currently resolve this, although future more general versions might

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@vluzko why not? I feel pretty confident that any limitation you see will be gone by then, but I'm curious what those limitations are

@L It's browser only (it also hasn't been released yet so unclear if it hits the "usefulness" threshold even for the browser but it seems likely that it will).

@vluzko If you intend to exclude AIs with a browser wrapper (why?), this should be explicitly listed in the resolution criteria. Browsers do normally interact with keyboard and mouse (or their non-physical equivalents).

predicted NO

@b575 I think they want something that isn't restricted to the browser. That can interact on a freeform way with the entire desktop environment.

predicted YES

You can run desktop environments in browsers nowadays, although perhaps not ones which a tool based on DOM manipulation can use.

@b575 Restricted to the browser disqualifies it

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