BIG-bench accuracy 75% #5: Will SOTA for a single model on BIG-bench pass 75% by the start of 2028?
7
150Ṁ3072028
87%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Only the sub benchmarks that are scored as an accuracy (i.e. from 0-100%) will be included (I think that's all of them but I'm not sure)
It must be a single model. If Model A achieves 75% on half and Model B achieves 75% on the other half that does not resolve the question YES
Ensemble models are fine but something like "run Model A on this benchmark and model B on this other benchmark" is not. If there is model selection is must be learned and it cannot include the current benchmark as an input.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
BIG-bench accuracy 75% #4: Will SOTA for a single model on BIG-bench pass 75% by the start of 2027?
86% chance
MMLU 99% #5: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 99% by the start of 2028?
44% chance
MMLU 99% #4: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 99% by the start of 2027?
8% chance
What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2028?
What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2027?
SOTA AI at EOY 2026 a reasoning model?
94% chance