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In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark?

12/5/27

What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2026?

Will AI solve 100% of solvable MTurk problems by July 2028?

32% chance

What will be the best AI performance on Humanity's Last Exam by December 31st 2025?

BIG-bench accuracy 75% #3: Will SOTA for a single model on BIG-bench pass 75% by the start of 2026?

86% chance

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PhysBench leaderboard?

2036

What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2028?

What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2027?

Will humans create a SOTA AI model without Multi-Layer Perceptrons by 2029?

39% chance

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

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@vluzko resolves NO

@mods very inactive creator, resolves NO, proof above

@Ziddletwix Does the source you got that from also have info on the other two markets (math/apps)?

@PlasmaBallin I'm just following the links in the description. Which should be straightforward (can post pics) but it's possible the linked source could be missing models? (i see one comment noting another). but maybe it's easiest just to go on the linked source

The last few % points are always the hardest. Unless, of course, you train on the validation set.

@thooton I think it's quite plausible that the test set will end up in the training set in some hard to detect way. I will exclude models for this if it's known their training set is poisoned (I assume Papers With Code would exclude them as well), but for most large language models the pre-training data is not public.