I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.
1,000
3.00Helene made landfall in Florida as a Cat 4 hurricane
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/al09/al092024.update.09270318.shtml?
https://www.web3isgoinggreat.com/
25 posts
from the NHC TWO:
Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the western
Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with a
very broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for gradual development of this system during the next
several days. A tropical depression is likely to form while the
system moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea
and Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week. Regardless of
development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over
portions of Central America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.From my own analysis of the latest ensembles it seems the chances are more likely than not Florida will get impacted by a TC in ~ the next 5 days (tracking from near the Yucatan northwards towards Florida). The majority of ensemble tracks show Florida impacted by such a disturbance if it forms (57/106 members), which is still 70% per NHC. Spaghetti plot of the ensembles from overnight:
From an equal weighting of GEPS, GEFS, EPS ensembles for tracks that impact Florida, there seems to be a non-negligible chance of a storm reaching Cat. 1 strength (at some point) before impacting Florida (perhaps 10-15% ?). These global models do tend to underestimate the strength as well as the chances for rapid intensification. There is also a strip of very high heat potential along which it might strengthen:
Edit: with 12Z models it looks like ~ 20% now. (GEFS is much more aggressive of the ensembles with almost 50% of its members having it reach a cat. 1). There is also increased agreement about the track (73/106 ~= 70% of members in a super-ensemble tracking a TC across Florida)
Edit: 18Z: 81/106 ~= 75% of members tracking through Florida.
@ijk1 this is very confusingly worded. second overall or second in september?
This channel have posted several videos about soup this month with >1M views: https://youtube.com/shorts/CKcjrKrG-_s?si=OVNrxCsz5LfHKdlk https://youtube.com/shorts/AYrljjQe844?si=dxMZmoZFVE4IO5BF
@MugaSofer damn I never would've guessed this option would be resolved by indigenous African muckbang with the most unappetising soup known to humanity lol
See this question for more details about the latest answer added:
@SteveSokolowski This and "wins most gold" resolve NO. https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024/paralympic-games/medals
@SteveSokolowski Note that there prior claimed results about 70b seem at odds with reality and third parties have found that its substantially worse. See here.
This image can serve as a reference for the past polls.
See also: /SteveSokolowski/will-manifold-users-declare-that-we