** Note: In order to make room for popular questions, any market that does not have:
>8 bettors within a month for markets launched before September 1
>8 bettors within a week for markets launched between September 1 and October 22
>8 bettors within 2 days after October 22
Will be N/A'd at that time. I reserve the right to change the threshold number of bettors at any time if too many or too few markets are meeting it.
Update 2024-18-12 (PST): Resolution will be based on Navigator Research's post-election survey data for black voter support of Trump. The specific source being used is: https://navigatorresearch.org/2024-post-election-survey-racial-analysis-of-2024-election-results/ (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2024-28-12 (PST): - Resolution Update:
The market will be resolved negatively in 3 days unless an objection is raised. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2024-28-12 (PST): - Resolution Basis: AP reporting 16%. (AI summary of creator comment)
1,000π Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | αΉ649 | |
| 2 | αΉ240 | |
| 3 | αΉ117 | |
| 4 | αΉ104 | |
| 5 | αΉ104 |
@CateHall I haven't been able to find evidence that this occurred -- I see a suit by the RNC but not a candidate. Plan to resolve negatively in 3 days unless there's an objection ...
Planning to resolve "Trump wins at least 15% of the black vote" to No in 48 hours based on this: https://navigatorresearch.org/2024-post-election-survey-racial-analysis-of-2024-election-results/
This says 14% and I haven't been able to find other reliable figures.
@CateHall no faithless electors, can resolve https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-cabinet-transition-news-12-17-24/index.html
@Yiddishe_Kupp1980 I tried to resolve the ones that seem completely clear and relied upon the Associated Press as the source. I'm sure @CateHall can handle the rest in time.
@CateHall Does this have to be a major candidate? What about someone like Randall Terry, the Constitution Party nominee for president (on the ballot in at least 12 states)?
@NathanScott They have to actually cast a ballot for someone else, but it counts even if the ballot is voided or they are replaced with a new elector (I don't think they can be prevented from voting in the first place, correct me if I'm wrong).