Which of the following will happen in the 2024 Presidential election? [ADD YOUR OWN ANSWERS (**see note**)]
23
189
2.3k
2025
91%
The Associated Press will declare a winner by EOD (ET) on Nov. 12
60%
The Associated Press will declare a winner by EOD (ET) on Nov. 6
57%
Trump wins Georgia
51%
Trump wins the election (electoral college)
49%
Trump wins Pennsylvania
48%
Trump wins Nevada
48%
Trump wins Wisconsin
47%
Trump wins Michigan
45%
Trump wins at least 15% of the black vote
45%
Trump wins Arizona
40%
A candidate receives >300 electoral college votes
38%
The person who wins the popular vote does not win the presidency
38%
There will be at least 1 Faithless Elector
36%
Trump wins the popular vote
34%
A candidate wins >51% of the popular vote
27%
A candidate files a lawsuit on Election Day
27%
A candidate wins >52% of the popular vote
25%
A candidate wins >53% of the popular vote
19%
A candidate receives >330 electoral college votes
15%
There will be at least 5 Faithless Electors

** Note: In order to make room for popular questions, any market that does not have:

  • >8 bettors within a month for markets launched before September 1

  • >8 bettors within a week for markets launched between September 1 and October 22

  • >8 bettors within 2 days after October 22

Will be N/A'd at that time. I reserve the right to change the threshold number of bettors at any time if too many or too few markets are meeting it.

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Do the faithless electors have to be successful or just try to vote for someone else?

@NathanScott They have to actually cast a ballot for someone else, but it counts even if the ballot is voided or they are replaced with a new elector (I don't think they can be prevented from voting in the first place, correct me if I'm wrong).