Which of the following will happen in the 2024 Presidential election? [ADD YOUR OWN ANSWERS (**see note**)]
Standard
47
Ṁ3786
Jan 1
89%
The Associated Press will declare a winner by EOD (ET) on Nov. 12
75%
A candidate receives >300 electoral college votes
69%
There will be at least 1 Faithless Elector
62%
A candidate files a lawsuit on Election Day
61%
The Associated Press will declare a winner by EOD (ET) on Nov. 6
60%
Trump wins Georgia
59%
Trump wins Arizona
58%
Trump wins Nevada
47%
Trump wins Pennsylvania
45%
Trump wins the election (electoral college)
44%
Trump wins Michigan
43%
Trump wins Wisconsin
41%
Trump wins at least 15% of the black vote
34%
A candidate wins >51% of the popular vote
28%
The person who wins the popular vote does not win the presidency
27%
A candidate wins >52% of the popular vote
26%
Trump wins the popular vote
19%
A candidate receives >330 electoral college votes
15%
There will be at least 5 Faithless Electors
12%
A candidate wins >53% of the popular vote

** Note: In order to make room for popular questions, any market that does not have:

  • >8 bettors within a month for markets launched before September 1

  • >8 bettors within a week for markets launched between September 1 and October 22

  • >8 bettors within 2 days after October 22

Will be N/A'd at that time. I reserve the right to change the threshold number of bettors at any time if too many or too few markets are meeting it.

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A candidate files a lawsuit on Election Day

@CateHall Does this have to be a major candidate? What about someone like Randall Terry, the Constitution Party nominee for president (on the ballot in at least 12 states)?

Do the faithless electors have to be successful or just try to vote for someone else?

@NathanScott They have to actually cast a ballot for someone else, but it counts even if the ballot is voided or they are replaced with a new elector (I don't think they can be prevented from voting in the first place, correct me if I'm wrong).