If any of these events were to happen before 1st January 2025, I will resolve that answer to N/A
Update 2024-17-12 (PST): - Monarchs and anyone on the List of current state leaders by date of assumption of office will be counted (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-27-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - US military conquest does not count as an event that would resolve the answer to YES
Greenland must join the USA voluntarily to resolve YES
Update 2025-27-01 (PST): - Resolution authority: NASA (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-02-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clear Death Confirmation Requirement
The outcome concerning King Charles will only be resolved if it is unequivocally confirmed that he is dead, not merely if there is temporary ambiguity or an apparent death.
Update 2025-02-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Children Eligibility Update:
Both past children and future children will be considered for the resolution criteria.
Update 2025-05-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer 'Peter Turkson elected Pope':
If a Pope other than Peter Turkson is elected during 2025, this specific answer will not automatically resolve to NO at that point.
Resolution to NO for this answer will be deferred as long as there is a possibility that the newly elected Pope could die and another papal election could occur before the market closes (end of 2025), offering Peter Turkson another chance to be elected.
Update 2025-07-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For answers concerning a rebrand:
An event that 'technically counts' as a rebrand will be considered valid, even if it was not what the creator initially had in mind.
As an example, the change from HBO Max to Max was ruled as a valid rebrand.
1,000People are also trading
@SteveSokolowski @PoliticalEconomyPK
This is now at 97% but the change happened in Jan 2026 per the summary notes: The Atlas announcement is 5th Jan 2026 and previous summary note was Nov 2025 when it was at 96%.
https://lifearchitect.ai/agi/
So resolves no, missing out by just 5 days.
Monthly average doesn't necessarily follow 7 day average but
7 day average January seems mainly 16000 falling to 12768 with a brief spike to 24k.
7 day average December 7050 to 12157.
https://manifold.markets/stats
Doesn't seem likely that monthly average would overcome that level of difference in the 7 day averages?
@Quroe ive already resolved most of the answers. Just need a bit more time for the remainder. Thanks for your patience. Meanwhile if you have any feedback about any specific resolution, do let me know
@PoliticalEconomyPK
The trial process is currently reaching its final stages:
Final Arguments: Closing arguments for the insurrection trial are scheduled to take place over three days on January 5, 7, and 9, 2026.
so can resolve no
@PoliticalEconomyPK https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/30/yemens-houthis-confirm-israeli-airstrike-killed-the-groups-prime-minister
This may count but is a gray area due to 2 competing governments in the civil war.
@KyleY the Houthis are unambiguously not the government of Yemen. They're equivalent in that regard to what the Islamic State was.
@BrunoParga Whether or not we think they’re a good government (I don’t), I think it’s a little more gray than ISIS
@PoliticalEconomyPK Resolves YES - 8.8 magnitude earthquake in Russia https://earthquaketrack.com/quakes/2025-07-29-23-24-50-utc-8-8-20
@PoliticalEconomyPK does Max -> HBO Max count as rebranding? https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/14/business/media/hbo-max-streaming-name.html
@Ruku this wasn't what I initially had in mind but it does technically count as a rebrand so I will resolve it now