📆What will happen in 2025? [Add Responses]
228
9.3kṀ110k
Dec 31
98%
Russia retains de facto control over Crimea
94%
Avatar: Fire and Ash released
91%
King Charles will be alive for the whole year of 2025
89%
FED rates will be below 4% on 31st December 2025
87%
Hollow Knight Silk song released
79%
LEMMiNO releases a new video
79%
Any incumbent world leader diagnosed with cancer after 28th January 2025
77%
GPT 5 releases
75%
Famous global brand goes through a rebranding
59%
Yoon Suk Yeol convicted of insurrection
50%
MKBHD marries his girlfriend Nikki Hair
50%
At Least 1 earthquake with magnitude 8.0 or higher
49%
Taylor Swift will be "single" anytime during 2025
46%
Elon removed as doge head
46%
In one of the monthly polls, >= 80.0% of Manifold users who provide an opinion agree that weak AGI has been achieved
46%
Alan's Conservative Countdown to AGI >= 97%
46%
Attempt to assassinate trump in 2025
45%
Early general elections in Pakistan
43%
There will be less MAU at manifold in December 2025 then there would be in January 2025
40%
2025 hotter then 2024

If any of these events were to happen before 1st January 2025, I will resolve that answer to N/A

  • Update 2025-27-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - US military conquest does not count as an event that would resolve the answer to YES

    • Greenland must join the USA voluntarily to resolve YES

  • Update 2025-27-01 (PST): - Resolution authority: NASA (AI summary of creator comment)

  • Update 2025-02-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clear Death Confirmation Requirement

    • The outcome concerning King Charles will only be resolved if it is unequivocally confirmed that he is dead, not merely if there is temporary ambiguity or an apparent death.

  • Update 2025-02-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Children Eligibility Update:

    • Both past children and future children will be considered for the resolution criteria.

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bought Ṁ75 NO14h

The odds of Turkson becoming Pope surely have to be below 2% now; they were 8% before the first conclave.

1d

@SteveSokolowski resolve NO

(lol me with three comments)

(also lol me buying NO after the results are already out so i can get free mana)

1d

You need to tag the market creator instead: @PoliticalEconomyPK

1d

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Good to know, thank you!

@quietsnow resolved

1d

@SteveSokolowski resolve NO

bought Ṁ60 NO1d

@SteveSokolowski resolve NO (the new pope is Leo XIV)

18d

@Gameknight Can you clarify: Does this require Los Ratones to compete in Worlds, or just their roster to physically attend?

@RedzoneITG This requires LR to compete in Worlds. "To simply physically attend the event" is neither the original intent nor the common interpretation of the phrase.

bought Ṁ300 NO18d

@SteveSokolowski resolve no

@PoliticalEconomyPK I have edited this answer to fix an obvious typo. It's supposed to be GTA 6 not GTA 5

@PoliticalEconomyPK this doesn't necessarily limit to past children, future children will also count

2mo

What happens if King Charles somehow dies during the year, but is still alive at the end?

@EloideReynal i wont be resolving until its absolutely clear that he's dead

@EloideReynal he isn't Jon Snow

sold Ṁ2 YES2mo

What are you going to decide on the "o6 variant" question, given that the o series models will no longer be released with that name?

@PoliticalEconomyPK Currently trading at 5% while “putin assassinated” trades at 7%

@PoliticalEconomyPK How are we dealing with recent squirrely claims that Elon is not a govt employee but an advisor?

@PoliticalEconomyPK what evidence do you need. Wikipedia thinks it is a regular occurrence, but the market on the issue holds to a silly evidentiary standard...

@JussiVilleHeiskanen i have edited the answer to make it more precise "Attempted assassination on Zelensky in which he gets hurt but survives" i think it makes it more concrete now

@PoliticalEconomyPK certainly easier to resolve. It is hard to fit resolution criteria in just so many characters

@PoliticalEconomyPK personally I would have been satisfied with resolution criteria given as a comment

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