📆What will happen in 2025? [Add Responses]

255

9.3kṀ120k

Dec 31

94%

Russia retains de facto control over Crimea

94%

Avatar: Fire and Ash released

93%

Hollow Knight Silk song released

92%

King Charles will be alive for the whole year of 2025

85%

Any incumbent world leader diagnosed with cancer after 28th January 2025

83%

Elon removed as doge head

80%

GPT 5 releases

78%

LEMMiNO releases a new video

75%

Famous global brand goes through a rebranding

74%

At Least 1 earthquake with magnitude 8.0 or higher

67%

Biden gets hospitalised

61%

FED rates will be below 4% on 31st December 2025

59%

Yoon Suk Yeol convicted of insurrection

50%

MKBHD marries his girlfriend Nikki Hair

48%

In one of the monthly polls, >= 80.0% of Manifold users who provide an opinion agree that weak AGI has been achieved

46%

Alan's Conservative Countdown to AGI >= 97%

45%

Early general elections in Pakistan

43%

There will be less MAU at manifold in December 2025 then there would be in January 2025

42%

At least one world leader (prime minister, president, or monarch) gets assassinated while in office

41%

Ali Khamenei assassisnated

If any of these events were to happen before 1st January 2025, I will resolve that answer to N/A

Update 2024-17-12 (PST): - Monarchs and anyone on the List of current state leaders by date of assumption of office will be counted (AI summary of creator comment)

Update 2025-27-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - US military conquest does not count as an event that would resolve the answer to YES
- Greenland must join the USA voluntarily to resolve YES

Update 2025-27-01 (PST): - Resolution authority: NASA (AI summary of creator comment)

Update 2025-02-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clear Death Confirmation Requirement
- The outcome concerning King Charles will only be resolved if it is unequivocally confirmed that he is dead, not merely if there is temporary ambiguity or an apparent death.

Update 2025-02-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Children Eligibility Update:
- Both past children and future children will be considered for the resolution criteria.

Update 2025-05-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer 'Peter Turkson elected Pope':
- If a Pope other than Peter Turkson is elected during 2025, this specific answer will not automatically resolve to NO at that point.
- Resolution to NO for this answer will be deferred as long as there is a possibility that the newly elected Pope could die and another papal election could occur before the market closes (end of 2025), offering Peter Turkson another chance to be elected.