📆What will happen in 2025? [Add Responses]
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Plus
162
Ṁ86k
Dec 31
47%
Avatar: Fire and Ash released
5%
A country leaves the EU
8%
A country leaves NATO
5%
51st US State
39%
Californian independence gains enough signatures
90%
Russia retains de facto control over Crimea
1.2%
A US state secedes from the union
31%
Chuck Schumer resigns
23%
Filibuster abolished
7%
China annexes Taiwan
17%
US-China war
6%
Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80% on or before March 31
16%
Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80% on or before June 30
55%
In one of the monthly polls, >= 33.3% of Manifold users who provide an opinion agree that non-human intelligence has influenced Earth
27%
OpenAI o6 or any o6 variant released
4%
One of the Millenium prize problems falls to a model
46%
Alan's Conservative Countdown to AGI >= 97%
62%
In one of the monthly polls, >= 80.0% of Manifold users who provide an opinion agree that weak AGI has been achieved
42%
In one of the monthly polls, a plurality of Manifold users declares the achievement of weak superintelligence
10%
Ukraine joins NATO

If any of these events were to happen before 1st January 2025, I will resolve that answer to N/A

  • Update 2025-27-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - US military conquest does not count as an event that would resolve the answer to YES

    • Greenland must join the USA voluntarily to resolve YES

  • Update 2025-27-01 (PST): - Resolution authority: NASA (AI summary of creator comment)

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filled a Ṁ50 YES at 50% order

Please keep throwing NO bets into Humanity's Last Exam, please.

To me, this seems like a given. In 2 months, the scores on the exam went from 3% to 26%. That answer is likely to resolve before the end of March.

opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 32% order

@copiumarc Already took that one out.

filled a Ṁ50 YES at 42% order

@copiumarc I added a stronger version of this one if you want throw more into that question.

I'm not betting on the 90% question because I think there are a number of questions that have human errors resulting in no correct answer, which the model might be so intelligent that it finds a second answer to, or which are ambiguous.

seems possible

@LiamZ Now it's your turn to be pedanted on. 😉

Would a signal or transmission of a technological blueprint count? Or does the technology need to corporeally and physically exist?

@Quroe thanks I actually did think of that but felt it was too long to try to get in there. Let’s say it has to be a physical object. If another civ is transmitting in the past and the signal is reaching us now it’d count for the detection of life elsewhere question but not this one.

@SteveSokolowski the US government already acknowledges the existence of dolphins, chimpanzees, etc. so this is trivially YES.

@LiamZ I did think about that, but they have to aknowledge that they are intelligent.

@Quroe, the DOD has been using dolphins’ intelligence to find things on our coasts:

https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3785968/marine-mammal-program-contributes-to-national-security/

I would say them continuing to do that into 2025 counts. But if not, it's going to turn into seriously splitting hairs and looking for ultra-specific wording from random officials which isn't a particularly interesting market.

Honestly this was likely supposed to be “extra-terrestrial intelligence” but that is totally a different thing from “non-human intelligence on earth” by definition.

Edit: I put mana down to give an option about extra-terrestrial intelligence rather than terrestrial non-human intelligence (which would also include AGI if reached based on wording and will confuse people if that doesn't count).

@LiamZ I guess I'm personally hung up on if they specifically use the word "intelligent" or similar. That being said, I have no personal stake in this market yet and am just being pedantic for the sake of being pedantic.

@Quroe that’s what I mean by hunting for specific wording. Dolphins have intelligence. Dolphins are non-human. The US government has been funding studies on dolphin intelligence, communication, and training them for decades. Dolphins are on Earth.

If the market is just about the exact wording of every statement made by people in these programs until the end of the year, that is not very interesting. If it's not counting all the non-human intelligence on Earth right now then it should say something besides “non-human intelligence on Earth.”

@LiamZ are they really "on or close to human level" though? idk much about dolphins but to me that would entail some level of language and abstract reasoning

@copiumarc they do have a bit of those but where did you get the “on or close to human level” quote?

I mean, if we want to distill language and abstract reasoning down to bare basics, would this adorable birb count as intelligent?

https://youtube.com/shorts/_AmBMMv88rI?si=iz2EeUsvmkNfMlN_

And just to prove that the bird video isn't a one-off (and also because I want to share another one): https://youtube.com/shorts/3oIkzKje_aw?si=d0lm271AAdCCL-Ut

@LiamZ oh my brain extrapolated the quote LOL

in its current wording tbh a lot of animals resolve this yes

@copiumarc ok haha I reread it and the comments a few times and couldn't figure out what I was missing. Yeah honestly a phrase like that could have helped. It should probably N/A as written tbh.

@SteveSokolowski Does AGI count?

@Quroe No.

@SteveSokolowski If a mission to Mars is launched, at what point in the journey would this resolve YES? 100% of the way there? 51%? 5%? In the event that the mission fails in transit, this could be a gray area.

Does a moon landing count?

I presume the International Space Station would not count?

Edit: quick modification to the specific percentages I used. Also added more context to my question in paragraph 1 about a failed mission.

@Quroe I would suggest anywhere except in low Earth orbit.

Let the record show that my edits on the original comment were made before clarification was made.

@PoliticalEconomyPK By what authority are we judging by?

filled a Ṁ72 NO at 10% order

Are we going by a NOAA report?

@Quroe we're going by NASA

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