☃️What will happen in December 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
➕
Plus
69
Ṁ25k
resolved Jan 5
Resolved
YES
NASDAQ hits an all time high
Resolved
YES
Someone other than Joe Biden or Donald Trump receives an electoral vote
Resolved
YES
A tesla catches fire as reported by news or tesla-fire.com
Resolved
YES
2 or more inches of snow fall in nyc
Resolved
YES
Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive for the entire month
Resolved
YES
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%
Resolved
YES
Penn State football advances to round of eight
Resolved
YES
Yoon Suk Yeol will stay president of South-Korea
Resolved
YES
Ayatollah Khamenei will be alive the whole month
Resolved
N/A
at least 1 inch of snow on the ground already on christmas day in NYC
Resolved
N/A
This market hits 2000 unique traders
Resolved
N/A
Weak AGI exists, as defined by the Metaculus market on the topic having resolved YES before the end of the month
Resolved
NO
8.0+ magnitude earthquake
Resolved
NO
web3isgoinggreat makes at least 20 posts this month
Resolved
NO
Dec (from Ant & Dec) mentions decimals, decibels, tough decisions, despots, Despicable Me, or Despacito on social media
Resolved
NO
One or more faithless electors
Resolved
NO
Coup attempt in the United States
Resolved
NO
Jimmy Carter says something
Resolved
NO
Michigan football earns bye

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

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bought Ṁ199 NO

So, it looks like weak superintelligence has less than 20%, but weak AGI was achieved with 50%.

bought Ṁ100 NO

Given that electoral votes are not counted till January, I don't see how someone other than Trump (or even Trump himself) will receive one in December.

@JamesOrr I don’t agree with that assessment, electoral votes were counted on December 17th (and are certified by congress in January), @strutheo @AlexanderMiller thoughts?

sold Ṁ65 NO

If the December 17th count serves towards resolution, than wouldn't this market have closed already?

(nvmd this is unlinked)

or bc i have a lot of markets and missed it lol

@JamesOrr I think that the market creator simply didn’t see this yet, I pinged them in the above comment and hopefully they make a decision soon

Edit: nevermind the comments didn’t load

Above link now also shows 1 inch snow at 12Z on 25 with no snow on that day. However, that question has been N/Ad. Not sure why.

Fresh snow on Christmas day market can resolve no.

Re: Yoon Suk Yeol - he is still president in name, and will likely stay that for some time:

The South Korean parliament has voted for his impeachment following a failed coup. Although he still remains president in name until the constitutional court makes a final decision, he is currently suspended and replaced by Prime Minister Han Duck-soo as interim president1. The court has 180 days to decide, meaning there is a good chance that Yoon will be out of office by then.

There is a mismatch between this market and the following one:

/SteveSokolowski/will-a-majority-of-manifold-respond

sold Ṁ39 NO

2" of snowfall in NYC starting to look likely https://bsky.app/profile/nymetrowx.bsky.social/post/3ldtpxtp3os2z

bought Ṁ595 NO

@strutheo there were no faithless electors

bought Ṁ673 YES

@strutheo
today Open 19,255.43 High 19,436.92
52-wk high 19,436.92
Previously
Category All-Time Highs Closing 19,298.76 Monday, November 11, 2024
Intraday 19,366.07 Monday, November 11, 2024
so hit intraday record

@strutheo closed 20173 Dec 16.
Can this resolve please?

bought Ṁ50 NO

To clarify here for bettors, "for the first time weak AGI is achieved" means that the majority threshold has to occur in December 2024, by the plain reading of the text.

There is a possibility that the standing results of the November 2024 poll will hold, and a majority will declare weak AGI achieved in November, resolving this question NO.

sold Ṁ22 YES

@AlexanderMiller wait, doesn't the electoral college vote happen in January, and the election was back in November?

bought Ṁ100 YES

lol wow

bought Ṁ40 NO

A quick Google suggests he doesn't have his own social media, just shared Ant & Dec social media. How to resolve if e.g. the @AntAndDec Twitter account tweets on one of these topics?

@MugaSofer I'll count that then haha

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