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So, it looks like weak superintelligence has less than 20%, but weak AGI was achieved with 50%.

Given that electoral votes are not counted till January, I don't see how someone other than Trump (or even Trump himself) will receive one in December.

@JamesOrr I don’t agree with that assessment, electoral votes were counted on December 17th (and are certified by congress in January), @strutheo @AlexanderMiller thoughts?

If the December 17th count serves towards resolution, than wouldn't this market have closed already?

(nvmd this is unlinked)

or bc i have a lot of markets and missed it lol

@JamesOrr I think that the market creator simply didn’t see this yet, I pinged them in the above comment and hopefully they make a decision soon

Edit: nevermind the comments didn’t load

@SteveSokolowski @strutheo
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=NYC&product=CF6&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0
2.8 In

Above link now also shows 1 inch snow at 12Z on 25 with no snow on that day. However, that question has been N/Ad. Not sure why.

Fresh snow on Christmas day market can resolve no.

Re: Yoon Suk Yeol - he is still president in name, and will likely stay that for some time:

The South Korean parliament has voted for his impeachment following a failed coup. Although he still remains president in name until the constitutional court makes a final decision, he is currently suspended and replaced by Prime Minister Han Duck-soo as interim president1. The court has 180 days to decide, meaning there is a good chance that Yoon will be out of office by then.

There is a mismatch between this market and the following one:

/SteveSokolowski/will-a-majority-of-manifold-respond

2" of snowfall in NYC starting to look likely https://bsky.app/profile/nymetrowx.bsky.social/post/3ldtpxtp3os2z

@strutheo there were no faithless electors

@strutheo https://www.yahoo.com/news/two-dead-tesla-crash-fire-170615843.html

@strutheo
today Open 19,255.43 High 19,436.92
52-wk high 19,436.92
Previously
Category All-Time Highs Closing 19,298.76 Monday, November 11, 2024
Intraday 19,366.07 Monday, November 11, 2024
so hit intraday record

@strutheo closed 20173 Dec 16.
Can this resolve please?

To clarify here for bettors, "for the first time weak AGI is achieved" means that the majority threshold has to occur in December 2024, by the plain reading of the text.

There is a possibility that the standing results of the November 2024 poll will hold, and a majority will declare weak AGI achieved in November, resolving this question NO.

@AlexanderMiller wait, doesn't the electoral college vote happen in January, and the election was back in November?

@AlexanderMiller lol

lol wow

A quick Google suggests he doesn't have his own social media, just shared Ant & Dec social media. How to resolve if e.g. the @AntAndDec Twitter account tweets on one of these topics?

@MugaSofer I'll count that then haha