☃️What will happen in December 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]

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Ṁ5356

Jan 1

99%

Someone other than Joe Biden or Donald Trump receives an electoral vote

98.8%

Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive for the entire month

98.7%

Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%

66%

A tesla catches fire as reported by news or tesla-fire.com

63%

web3isgoinggreat makes at least 20 posts this month

63%

Penn State football advances to round of eight

59%

NASDAQ hits an all time high

50%

american airstrike or drone strike or missle strike on lebanon

50%

another indictment against trump

50%

another right wing media persona is revealed to have taken russia money

50%

new charges brought against trump

49%

2 or more inches of snow fall in nyc

45%

american airstrike or drone strike or missle strike on iran

39%

>= 20% of Manifold respondents believe that weak superintelligence has been achieved in the monthly poll

34%

For the first time, weak AGI is declared to have been achieved by a majority of Manifold respondents in the monthly poll

31%

Ohio State football fails to earn playoff berth

31%

at least 1 inch of snow freshly falls in NYC on christmas day

31%

at least 1 inch of snow on the ground already on christmas day in NYC

28%

Jimmy Carter says something

15%

Dec (from Ant & Dec) mentions decimals, decibels, tough decisions, despots, Despicable Me, or Despacito on social media

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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Someone other than Joe Biden or Donald Trump receives an electoral vote

bought Ṁ100 Someone other than J... YES

@AlexanderMiller lol

lol wow

Dec (from Ant & Dec) mentions decimals, decibels, tough decisions, despots, Despicable Me, or Despacito on social media

bought Ṁ40 Dec (from Ant & Dec)... NO

A quick Google suggests he doesn't have his own social media, just shared Ant & Dec social media. How to resolve if e.g. the @AntAndDec Twitter account tweets on one of these topics?

@MugaSofer I'll count that then haha

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