📆What will happen in 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]

Plus

345

Ṁ150k

Jan 1

95%

Bitcoin closes higher on Festivus (Dec. 23, 2024) than it closed on Festivus (Dec. 23, 2023) [EST] ***- $43,739.54 - closing price on Festivus 2023***

95%

linda yaccarino still ceo of twitter at end of year

84%

Bitcoin hits $100k USD

83%

Manifold users rate manifold politics as a successful experiment at eoy

71%

English Wikipedia will reach 6.93 million articles.

65%

official trailer releases for S&box (new facepunch / garry mod game)

65%

Premier League total goal count: Delap ≥10; Palmer ≥11; and Salah ≥12 (https://www.premierleague.com/stats/top/players/goals)

61%

Deagle's old "2025 forecast" will turn out to be completely wrong

59%

contrapoints releases a video after Twilight

59%

Another major Labour Party (UK) gaffe (post-Nov 20th)

50%

Manifold hits 11000 Monthly Active Users

44%

Anyone from the 2023 Time100 passes away (https://time.com/collection/100-most-influential-people-2023/)

39%

The next actor to play James Bond will be announced

38%

Elon Musk spends Christmas Eve or Day with Trump (in person or virtually)

37%

something related to seinfeld (the show) happens as jerry seinfeld hinted at last fall

35%

Imu face reveal in One Piece

32%

Casa Bonita reopens to the general public with full normal restaurant hours (no longer invite/reservation only)

31%

Aberdeen Football Club are top of the Scottish Premiership table

29%

prong.studio releases a 3rd product and starts taking preorders or sales (not including accessories / parts)

28%

Microsoft unveils windows 12 (or whatever the next version is called)

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#What Will Happen Markets

Get

1,000

and

3.00

27 Comments

334 Holders

3k Trades

Sort by:

@Weezing i dont know who needs to hear this but en wiki is averaging about less then 200 new articles a day currently and its currently at 6.913 million articles as of 20th November. This will hardly be enough to reach 6.93

@PoliticalEconomyPK It now seems I do know who needs to hear this but en wiki is averaging around 480 new articles a day currently and it is at 6.913 million articles as of 20th November. This gives a forecast of ~6.932 million which is very close to the 6.93 threshold and it drifting towards being under is possible but my predictions have been quite steady and consistent in being slightly over in the predictions I am getting.

bought Ṁ400 Answer #1d6c9613feb9 YES

@strutheo jaguar

https://x.com/Jaguar/status/1858800846646948155?t=qpNrOQ11BM6MxtTcJYdqaA&s=19

Resolves YES

bought Ṁ1,000 Answer #87b5f19511f0 YES

@strutheo
National team resolves yes

while
MLB World Series won by the American League team
resolves no

@BlueDragon What does "uncontested" mean in this context?

@Kraalnaxx That one of the candidates has conceded and we have a president elect

@Erskine does president elect count?

It does not say “elected”. It says “first female president” in 2024. To me, as posed, it must mean that a female would need to actually be president at some time in 2024. The only ambiguity, in my opinion, is which country she would be president of. 🙂