📆What will happen in 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
Basic
287
105k
2025
January starts
February starts
March starts
April starts
May starts
June starts
July starts
98.6%
new iphone releases
93%
Manifold users rate manifold politics as a successful experiment at eoy
88%
spacex makes 100 launches in 1 year, all in 2024
87%
someone gets 1M spice (points)
86%
A famous global brand undergoes a rebranding
86%
joseph anderson releases his long awaited witcher 3 video
83%
contrapoints releases a video after Twilight
83%
Bitcoin closes higher on Festivus (Dec. 23, 2024) than it closed on Festivus (Dec. 23, 2023) [EST] ***- $43,739.54 - closing price on Festivus 2023***
82%
Any world leader says a racial slur
81%
Trump posts a tweet to @realdonaldtrump
80%
Kamala and Trump debate
80%
Israel : Hamas Ceasefire
77%
at least two instances of whales attacking boats in the ocean reported by the news
77%
A terrorist bombing is perpetrated by a Christian, Hindu or Buddhist religious extremist somewhere in the world (in the name of religious extremism)
77%
prong.studio releases a 3rd product and starts taking preorders or sales (not including accessories / parts)
75%
Jimmy Carter dies
73%
coup of a UN recognized country happens
70%
English Wikipedia will reach 6.93 million articles.
68%
official trailer releases for S&box (new facepunch / garry mod game)
67%
linda yaccarino still ceo of twitter at end of year

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

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bought Ṁ3,877 Answer #22088797f77c NO

@strutheo "Joe Biden wins USA 2024 election" - this can resolve NO

bought Ṁ750 Answer #c7e34f7c968a YES

@strutheo Mel Brooks is now 98

HBD MEL

let's see if we can hit 99 this year 💯

bought Ṁ1,000 Answer #14ad9ffe3d0a YES
bought Ṁ5 Answer #e921f8c4ab7b NO

Why is this so high? Did an invasion happen I don't know about?

I assume it's related to israel and lebanon? (if an invasion has happened it would be resolved already, so this seems more anticipatory)

reposted

july started

bought Ṁ989 Answer #029fd9b75999 YES

@strutheo I assume we're changing this to $100 for the stock split?

bought Ṁ50 Answer #a0048c71df82 NO

@shankypanky Since you're the main NO bettor, is that what you had in mind?

no? I had in mind that "nvidia ends the year over $1000 usd"

I can't see fundamentally changing the figure and considering it the same thing. it should either resolve as stated or NA.

imo

(tbc I don't know anything about a stock split and I'm not in a position to look it up or go into this right now, but on the face it seems weird to change the whole option despite having bets)

Id na it , the stock split changed everything by 10x ( I basically had to update all my pre split markets to reflect it )

reposted

june ending soon!

at least two instances of whales attacking boats in the ocean reported by the news

A ship was sank today by orcas

reposted

may bump

reached

bought Ṁ140 Answer #f1ee89a618b7 YES

should resolve YES

bought Ṁ200 Answer #9b43f636b34c YES

They’re going to artificially bump profit number by 10x so this is almost guaranteed to happen

@JamesF doesnt feel in the spirit of when i made this :\ might NA

@JamesF I don't think they're increasing the amount of mana, just changing the exchange rate.

@JamesF Changing $ exchange rate, does that change profit rate? I doubt that. I think there will be an increase in profit per market due to increased cost of creation but I don't know by how much. There may also be a decrease in markets because of increased cost of creation?

I am not sure what will happen perhaps top profit maker does make quite a bit more than 144k last month maybe more like 1 million a month but is the top profit maker the same each month?
8 months left in this year.

@ChristopherRandles On the discord they said that on the leaderboard they were going to increase to profit because they devalued mana

bought Ṁ10 Answer #9b43f636b34c NO

@JamesF I think this is the same mechanism, I am talking about. Increased claim creation cost means greater profit can be made on each question. How do you think they are going to increase profit other than through this mechanism?