📆What will happen in 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
220
2.3K
26K
2025
January starts
Jan 1
February starts
Feb 1
March starts
Mar 1
April starts
Apr 1
May starts
May 1
65%
Manifold hits 11000 Monthly Active Users
78%
Israel : Hamas Ceasefire
26%
Taylor Swift becomes engaged to be married (to anyone)
12%
Assassination of a European or Asian head of state
53%
MLB World Series won by the National League team
52%
Earthquake over 8.0 magnitude
49%
Joe Biden wins USA 2024 election according to most reputable news sites
52%
Donald Trump wins USA 2024 election according to most reputable news sites
24%
Russia : Ukraine ceasefire
49%
MLB World Series won by the American League team
5%
Musk : Zuckerberg fight actually happens
20%
Assassination of a North American or South American head of state
34%
Assassination of an African head of state
10%
Pope Francis dies
74%
Jimmy Carter dies
6%
Vladimir Putin dies
35%
USA government shutdown
6%
Donald Trump dies
16%
Joe Biden dies
50%
Someone other than Netanyahu becomes prime minister of Israel

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:
Mr Beat hits 1 million suscribers (the history YouTuber, not Mr Beast)

reached

Mr Beat hits 1 million suscribers (the history YouTuber, not Mr Beast)
bought Ṁ140 Mr Beat hits 1 milli... YES

should resolve YES

someone has reached 10 million mana profit on manifold
bought Ṁ200 someone has reached ... YES

They’re going to artificially bump profit number by 10x so this is almost guaranteed to happen

@JamesF doesnt feel in the spirit of when i made this :\ might NA

@JamesF I don't think they're increasing the amount of mana, just changing the exchange rate.

@JamesF Changing $ exchange rate, does that change profit rate? I doubt that. I think there will be an increase in profit per market due to increased cost of creation but I don't know by how much. There may also be a decrease in markets because of increased cost of creation?

I am not sure what will happen perhaps top profit maker does make quite a bit more than 144k last month maybe more like 1 million a month but is the top profit maker the same each month?
8 months left in this year.

@ChristopherRandles On the discord they said that on the leaderboard they were going to increase to profit because they devalued mana

bought Ṁ10 someone has reached ... NO

@JamesF I think this is the same mechanism, I am talking about. Increased claim creation cost means greater profit can be made on each question. How do you think they are going to increase profit other than through this mechanism?

spacex makes 100 launches in 1 year, all in 2024
bought Ṁ20 spacex makes 100 lau... YES

Falcon 9 launch 217 to 324 is over 100 in 1 year. (You didn't specify the 1 year had to be all in 2024 ;)

@ChristopherRandles you know what i mean wise guy

sold Ṁ16 new iphone releases YES

Q2 bump!

MrBeast hits 250 Million subscribers

reached

MrBeast hits 250 Million subscribers

reached

reposted

april bump

>6.8 million articles on english wikipedia

Over 6.8M

at least one equipment caused death at a theme park in the USA due to ride failure, negligence, or other similar cause (not: pool drowning, natural disasters , medical, or forced violence)
bought Ṁ150 at least one equipme... YES

@strutheo: https://www.aol.com/father-boy-died-falling-off-143357965.html

Falling out of the ride clearly seems like a form of ride failure or negligence. The website describes ICON Park as a theme park: "ICON Park is the only entertainment complex that offers the Orlando-sized fun of theme parks, in a way that is affordable and easy." (https://iconparkorlando.com/about/)

@SaviorofPlant ill have to read into this, falling off doesnt necessarily guarantee an equipment failure imo

@SaviorofPlant might be from 2022

sold Ṁ241 at least one equipme... YES

@strutheo Ah yeah it is, I could've sworn I saw "last month". Sorry, this is irrelevant then

eth ethereum hits $4000 USD

current 4,052.53USD

support ceases for manifold.love by my judgement
bought Ṁ50 support ceases for m... YES
Sweden joins NATO

@strutheo Resolves yes.

Nikki Haley reaches 25% or more on 538's republican primary page at any point
bought Ṁ171 Nikki Haley reaches ... NO

@strutheo Resolves NO.

Trump gets more votes in 2024 than Biden got in 2020 (POPULAR VOTES)

probably unnecessary to say this but to avoid confusion later on, can we agree this means popular vote instead of electoral votes?

@jBosc cc @NSR

oh theyre banned

yes ill edit to say popular