๐What will happen in October 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
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Nov 1
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96%
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation continues to meet or exceed 95%
80%
Something is called an "October surprise" by Fox, CNN, NYT, or AP
71%
Francis is Pope for the entire month
66%
An event that could be considered an October Surprise, as judged by chris (strutheo), occurs
59%
BTC falls below $60k
52%
At least one share of nVidia stock is traded above $1,000 during normal, premarket, or after hours trading
50%
@strutheo sees someone dressed as "The Unknown" (from the Willy Wonka experience) for Halloween
50%
A YouTube video specifically about octagons, octogenarians, octopi, Doctor Octopus, Emperor Octavian, the Oculus Rift, or Occultism is posted and gets >1M views
48%
T1 advances to the playoffs in the League of Legends World Championship
41%
2 or more inches of snow fall in nyc
41%
Astros make the ALCS
34%
This market hits 1000 unique traders
33%
William is King of The United Kingdom at any point during the month
26%
NASDAQ hits an all time high
17%
Weak AGI exists at any point during the month, as defined by the Metaculus market on the topic having previously resolved YES
16%
Phillies advance to the World Series
16%
8.0+ magnitude earthquake
8%
chris (strutheo) rolls a d20 die at market close, and it lands on a natural 20
3%
Tumbles is late to pay back a loan https://manifold.markets/Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba
Resolved
N/AEliezer Yudkowsky is alive for the entire month
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