On the 23rd of every month, a Manifold poll is posted about whether weak artificial general intelligence has been achieved. The polls do not provide a definition of AGI, and are designed to track the perception of progress towards its achievement.
Starting on September 23, 2024, monthly polls asking this question will also be published:
Before September 23, 2024 (this date will never change in future polls), had non-human intelligence ever influenced any person, creature, or event on Earth?
The definition of "non-human intelligence" is left to the respondent to define, EXCEPT that it excludes known Earth life such as apes, dolphins, ants, and trees.
About 32% of the general public would now answer the poll YES: https://today.yougov.com/society/articles/48928-is-something-out-there-americans-government-secrets-ufos.
That is the exact same ratio that answered the most recent poll about AI progress as YES : /SteveSokolowski/will-manifold-users-declare-that-we
The options in these polls are YES, NO, and No opinion. In the inaugural poll about non-human intelligence, will the ratio of YES / (YES + NO) exceed 32%?
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