Will Israel and Palestinian groups in Gaza (Hamas, PIJ, both or any other group(s)) agree to and conduct a prisoner swap involving at least 10 Israelis who are in the Gaza Strip, before the end of this year?
This resolves YES only if this is agreed upon by both sides and successfully carried out.
Per Reuters on October 20, Hamas has said it captured 200 hostages and that 50 more are held by other groups in Gaza, while public broadcaster Kan said 200 Israelis were being held in Gaza.
(https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/what-do-we-now-about-hamas-hostages-2023-10-19/)
On October 26, Hamas said that "almost 50" of those held captive had died in Israeli strikes on Gaza. On 2 November, it said a further 7 had died in a strike on the Jabalia refugee camp. These numbers may change and may not be very accurate as intense bombing persists. (https://www.scmp.com/news/world/middle-east/article/3239336/israel-gaza-war-hamas-says-almost-50-israeli-hostages-killed-tel-avivs-raids)
NOTE: I set a minimum number for the number of Israelis to exclude smaller scale hostage releases such as unilateral ones by Hamas that have already taken place, where information and reporting might not be very clear. No minimum is set for the Palestinian side, which is hard to predict as the number may be disproportionate and hard to predict (eg. A single Israeli soldier was exchanged for 1027 Palestinians in 2011).
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Resolves YES per credible reporting.
State of play: Two sources with direct knowledge of the talks tell Axios that as part of the hostage deal Israel would release three Palestinian prisoners held in Israel for each Israeli hostage released by Hamas.
In the first phase of the two-phase deal, Hamas is expected to release 50 Israeli women and children held in Gaza, while Israel is expected to release around 150 Palestinian prisoners, mostly women and minors. Some of the Israeli hostages are dual citizens.
https://www.npr.org/2023/11/20/1214110024/hostages-deal-israel-gaza-hamas-hospitals
Israeli media reports have suggested negotiations involve the possible exchange of between 50 and 100 women and children held on both sides in addition to a multiday pause in the fighting.
I'm currently highly uncertain about my own position so I've only placed a small essentially nominal trade and plan on updating this. I'm leaning in favour due to pressure from the captives' families for an "all for all" swap, reports of negotiations mediated by Egypt and Qatar and the failure thus far of (albeit small scale) Israeli ground incursions into Gaza.