This is my 3rd time making this market. For the love of whichever God you believe in, please let this one finally be a YES.
At any point in the month of April will there be a cease in the fighting between Israel and Hamas?
Things which will cause this market to Resolve YES:
Israel and Hamas work out of a mutual cessation in fighting which lasts for at least 24hrs
Israel and Hamas end their war
Otherwise, this market will Resolve NO at the end of April 30th, 2024.
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@Sodann it doesnโt have to end in April, no. thatโs not a part of this. this market (and i) hope for a long ceasefire
@mattyb I meant, does it count, for example, if the ceasefire only starts one hour before the end of the month or does it already need to start on the 29th, such that there are 24 hours left within April? Since the decision is currently being made, this could make the difference.
Either way, which time zone are we talking about?
@Sodann I was talking about Israeli time. If the ceasefire begins within April, and thereโs less than 24hrs left in Israel, I will extend this just for the remaining 23hrs.
If terms are reached before the end of April 30th, and the terms begin by then, but the full 24hrs hasnโt elapsed, I will very likely count this. Odds for this are quite low, as I understand communication to take days to reach Hamas in tunnels/other states.
A ceasefire is getting less likely by the day, not more. Biden stepping up pressure on Israel just incentivizes Hamas to hold out or an even better deal later. The recent Israel-Iran attack raises the odds of a regional war, which Hamas wants (since they want Israel to have to fight in multiple fronts than concentrate on them).
@riverwalk3 Not sure if the Israel-Iran attack really raises the odds of a regional war, and if Hamas wants a regional war.
@nathanwei If Iran responds then this could lead to regional war. A regional war would spread Israel thin and make it harder to focus on Hamas.
Hamas would be extremely stupid to accept a deal right now. It would be like Ukraine agreeing to a 1 month ceasefire with Russia right as the American military is about to join them.
@riverwalk3 Hamas only got like one team on their asses. Spinning up a new campaign would do nothing for them.
It ainโt happening, sadly. Neither party wants a deal that yields what their opponent most values. If Hamas hands over hostages, they lose their most valuable insurance assets. If Israel accepts a ceasefire without hostages or a surrendered Hamas, its stock in the Middle East and global power tanks.
@BrentTollman An Israeli airstrike killed international aid workers from Australian and other countries. This will put a heap on pressure on Israel to investigate and at least โpauseโ
@OneGuy That presents an interesting question to the market: is the ceasefire defined as temporary or permanent? If the former, what duration of time will be defined as a ceasefire vs pause?
Israel and Hamas work out of a mutual cessation in fighting which lasts for at least 24hrs
@BrentTollman Why would it be likely? Hamas has no incentive to accept one anymore other than a total Israel surrender, which Netanyahu would never agree to.
@riverwalk3 Allies freeze weapons exporting to Israel until the report into killing foreigner aid workers is released? Pressure from UK, Australia and US is at itโs highest since the incident
@OneGuy Netanyahu will lose power if he agrees to a permanent ceasefire. Since pressure from the US for a ceasefire is so high, Hamas has no incentive to accept any deal that is less than a permanent ceasefire.