Will Hamas declare victory against Israel in 2024?
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20%
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This question seeks to predict whether the Hamas organization, through its officials, will declare victory over Israel within the year 2024. For the purposes of this market, a declaration of victory refers to a public statement made by a recognized authority within Hamas leadership, such as a member of its political bureau or a high-ranked leader of its military wing.

Winning Conditions:

The market resolves positively if, at any time during the year 2024, a public statement is released by Hamas leaders explicitly declaring victory over Israel. The statement must unambiguously state that Hamas has achieved victory, using terms such as "defeated Israel" or "Hamas is victorious over Israel." If no such statement is made in the year 2024, the market resolves negatively.

UPD (for clarity): using a dysphemism instead of Israel also suffices. For example they could state a victory against zionists/occupants etc., but it should be unambiguously clear that they are talking about Israel.

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