Nuclear Risk Prediction Dashboard
The data for this dashboard comes from prediction markets, where people can bet on the outcome of future events. Users can trade in a market to change the probability to reflect what they believe is the chance of the correct answer. As more users trade, the market converges to reflect the truth.
The purpose of this dashboard is to provide a way to track the probability of various nuclear risks, as estimated by the markets. We are hoping it can help with decision-making, at a personal or institutional level.
The data is updated continuously, and the analysis is updated manually based on market movements.
Overall Nuclear Risk
Immediate risk:
/FRCassarino/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-launched-i-58f3ef71a9d5
2022 risk:
/Jotto999/will-at-least-3-million-americans-d /Jotto999/will-at-least-67000-people-in-the-u
/FRCassarino/will-at-least-50k-ukrainians-die-fr
2023 risk:
/AndyMartin/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-launched-i-015e44ed91f5
Risk of Escalation
Initial Launch
At this time, prediction markets are relatively confident that if a nuclear weapon is used in combat, it'll be a Russian attack on Ukraine. They lean towards it NOT targeting major cities.
/FRCassarino/if-a-nuclear-weapon-is-launched-in-2c427c814f98 /FRCassarino/if-a-russian-nuclear-weapon-strikes
Markets believe the initial launch would be a more contained "show of force", meant as an intimidation tactic, and potentially targeting locations of military value. /jack/will-a-tactical-nonstrategic-nuclea /jack/will-a-strategic-not-tactical-nucle
/jack/will-a-countervalue-nuclear-weapon
Further escalation
Prediction markets don't expect a strike on Ukraine to escalate into strikes on NATO territory this year.
/FRCassarino/if-a-nuclear-weapon-is-launched-in
Even if NATO territory is targeted, prediction markets are relatively confident it won't escalate into full-blown nuclear war within this year, and lean towards this also being the case next year:
/FRCassarino/if-a-nuclear-weapon-detonates-in-a /SG/if-a-nuclear-weapon-is-used-in-comb
[WORK IN PROGRESS, TO BE COMPLETED]