Will at least 3 million Americans die from nuclear war in 2022?

46

22

Ṁ7.7K

Ṁ240

resolved Jan 1

Resolved

NO

1D

1W

1M

ALL

In the event of needing a body count, I'll refer to whichever estimates are available. If none are available I'll try to make a reasonable guess. For semi-attributable and delayed-attributable (e.g. some people starving due to infrastructure loss) I'll try to make inclusions if it seems obvious those deaths would not have happened without the nuclear exchange.

Get Ṁ200 play money

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bought Ṁ20 of NO

If this happens, I am extremely unlikely to care about the M$

bought Ṁ50 of NO

Buying some of both to get the pool higher

bought Ṁ1 of YES

Betting on people pulling money for other investments

bought Ṁ10 of YES

this was actually a miss click. efficient markets ftw

bought Ṁ1 of YES

updating on putin allegedly saying things which sound uncomfortably like nuclear threats

bought Ṁ50 of NO

Buying mostly to increase the size of the pool

bought Ṁ10 of NO

this really needs a bigger ante to be worth betting on seriously

sold Ṁ50 of NO

math bad

Related in Paradox

If AI wipes out humanity, will mana still have value afterwards?

Will there be a violent revolution or Civil war in America by 2100?

See more Paradox questions

More related questions

If a nuclear weapon is used in combat before the end of 2023, will more than 20M die from war-related injuries over the next year?

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?

Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2030?

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2030?

Will a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2030?

Will there be more nuclear warheads in the world in 2030 than 2023?

Will nuclear war cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?

Will more people die in wars in 2024 than in 2023?

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2025?

Will a nuclear weapon cause over 1,000 deaths in 2024?

Paradox questions

If AI wipes out humanity, will mana still have value afterwards?

Will there be a violent revolution or Civil war in America by 2100?

Related questions

If a nuclear weapon is used in combat before the end of 2023, will more than 20M die from war-related injuries over the next year?

Will there be more nuclear warheads in the world in 2030 than 2023?

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?

Will nuclear war cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?

Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2030?

Will more people die in wars in 2024 than in 2023?

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2030?

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2025?

Will a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2030?

Will a nuclear weapon cause over 1,000 deaths in 2024?