FRC
@FRCassarino
Trading profits
---
Balance
---
Portfolio
---
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Creator rank
#0
Total markets
0
Unique traders
642+3%
Posts
Will Queen Elizabeth II survive?
In light of the recent news, these are some Prediction markets tracking the likelihood of the Queen passing away in the next few days. Because this is a morbid example - I want to be clear that nobody is making/losing money off of this, this platform (Manifold) is just for play internet points - like Reddit predictions.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-queen-elizabeth-die-by-septemb)Some other related prediction markets:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/will-queen-elizabeth-ii-die-before/will-elisabeth-ii-be-queen-of-the-u/will-queen-elizabeth-be-hospitalize/in-what-month-will-queen-elizabeth/will-queen-elizabeth-abdicate-befor/will-queen-elizabeth-ii-be-the-last/will-elizabeth-ii-become-the-longes)Sky News Live Updates:
(https://news.sky.com/story/queen-health-fears-latest-updates-prince-of-wales-travels-to-balmoral-amid-deep-concern-for-monarch-12692812?postid=4428891#liveblog-body)0
comments
Futarchy in the U.K
Who will win the next UK general election?
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Gigacasting/will-the-tories-win-the-next-genera)@/AlexL/will-there-be-a-uk-general-electionWho should the Conservatives pick as their next leader?
Which candidate would fare best on a general election?
[markets]Which candidate would have the highest approval rating a year into their term?
[markets]Who will replace Liz Truss
(https://manifold.markets/embed/kolotom99/who-will-be-the-next-uk-prime-minis)@/jack/will-boris-johnson-be-the-next-uk-p-d575293fa82a@/jack/will-rishi-sunak-be-the-next-uk-pri
@/jack/will-penny-mordaunt-be-the-next-uk2
comments
Nuclear Risk Dashboard
Nuclear Risk Prediction Dashboard
The data for this dashboard comes from prediction markets, where people can bet on the outcome of future events. Users can trade in a market to change the probability to reflect what they believe is the chance of the correct answer. As more users trade, the market converges to reflect the truth.
The purpose of this dashboard is to provide a way to track the probability of various nuclear risks, as estimated by the markets. We are hoping it can help with decision-making, at a personal or institutional level.
The data is updated continuously, and the analysis is updated manually based on market movements.
Overall Nuclear Risk
Immediate risk:
@/FRCassarino/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-launched-i-58f3ef71a9d5
2022 risk:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/EricJang/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-launched-i)@/Jotto999/will-at-least-3-million-americans-d @/Jotto999/will-at-least-67000-people-in-the-u
@/FRCassarino/will-at-least-50k-ukrainians-die-fr
2023 risk:
@/AndyMartin/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-launched-i-015e44ed91f5
Risk of Escalation
Initial Launch
At this time, prediction markets are relatively confident that if a nuclear weapon is used in combat, it'll be a Russian attack on Ukraine. They lean towards it NOT targeting major cities.
@/FRCassarino/if-a-nuclear-weapon-is-launched-in-2c427c814f98 @/FRCassarino/if-a-russian-nuclear-weapon-strikes
Markets believe the initial launch would be a more contained "show of force", meant as an intimidation tactic, and potentially targeting locations of military value. @/jack/will-a-tactical-nonstrategic-nuclea @/jack/will-a-strategic-not-tactical-nucle
@/jack/will-a-countervalue-nuclear-weapon
Further escalation
Prediction markets don't expect a strike on Ukraine to escalate into strikes on NATO territory this year.
@/FRCassarino/if-a-nuclear-weapon-is-launched-in
Even if NATO territory is targeted, prediction markets are relatively confident it won't escalate into full-blown nuclear war within this year, and lean towards this also being the case next year:
@/FRCassarino/if-a-nuclear-weapon-detonates-in-a @/SG/if-a-nuclear-weapon-is-used-in-comb
[WORK IN PROGRESS, TO BE COMPLETED]2
comments
Will Roger Federer play as a Wildcard at Wimbledon 2023?
Roger Federer has announced his retirement from tennis, but a goodbye at the Laver cup seems anticlimactic. I think he could be granted a wildcard to play at Wimbledon 2023 and get a proper goodbye there. I made a prediction market to guess whether he will (This is not a gambling thing, it's just predicting with fake internet points)
(https://manifold.markets/embed/FRCassarino/will-roger-federer-play-at-wimbledo)0
comments
Prediction Markets for the Tesla AI day
I compiled a bunch of prediction-markets on what will happen during the Tesla AI day.
Disclaimer: These are all play-money prediction markets, no real money is involved here, it's just predicting for fun.
OPTIMUS ROBOT
(https://manifold.markets/embed/BTE/will-tesla-have-a-live-demo-of-an-o)CONDITIONAL on an Optimus Robot being presented:
@/BTE/will-the-optimus-robot-juggle-any-3 @/BTE/will-teslas-optimus-robot-come-with
@/BTE/will-teslas-optimus-robot-be-contro @/BTE/will-there-be-more-than-one-model-o
@/BTE/will-an-optimus-robot-drive-a-tesla @/BTE/will-teslas-optimus-robot-send-a-tw
FULL SELF DRIVING
(https://manifold.markets/embed/RichardLabas/will-the-tesla-reveal-hw-40-at-ai-d)(https://manifold.markets/embed/BTE/will-tesla-demo-a-full-self-driving)MISCELLANEOUS
@/BTE/will-elon-musk-wear-a-cool-jacket-d @/BTE/will-it-be-announced-that-anthony-l
@/Heaffey/will-elon-musk-say-the-word-twitter
INTERESTING ELON MARKETS UNRELATED TO TESLA AI DAY
(https://manifold.markets/embed/BTE/will-a-delaware-judge-order-elon-mu)(https://manifold.markets/embed/SamuelMillerick/will-spacex-launch-a-starship-into)WHAT ARE PREDICTION MARKETS?
Manifold Markets is a play-money prediction market platform where you can bet on anything. Prediction markets allow you to bet on the outcome of future events.
Users can trade in a market to change the probability to reflect what they believe is the chance of the correct answer. As more users trade, the market converges to reflect the truth. Since these probabilities are public, anyone can use them to make more informed decisions!
These Tesla AI Day markets have a low number of predictions so far, I encourage everyone to add your own predictions to help them become more accurate.1
comments
Manifold Forecast on Petrov Day
PETROV DAY MARKETS:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Multicore/will-less-wrongs-big-red-button-be)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Multicore/what-of-petrov-day-will-elapse-befo)@/IsaacKing/will-i-press-the-petrov-day-button @/MartinRandall/will-lesswrong-change-their-petrov 0
comments
Elon vs Twitter Predictions
Prediction Markets are now predicting that Elon's twitter deal will close!
(https://manifold.markets/embed/dreev/will-the-musk-twitter-deal-close)(https://manifold.markets/embed/SG/will-elon-musk-buy-twitter-this-yea)Some other interesting markets:
@/Heaffey/if-elon-musk-is-forced-to-buy-twitt @/BTE/will-a-delaware-judge-order-elon-mu
(https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/will-elon-musk-become-ceo-of-twitte/will-elon-musk-be-banned-from-twitt/will-elon-musk-acquire-twitter-by-j/will-elon-musk-pay-twitter-a-breaku/if-elon-musk-is-allowed-out-of-his/will-twitter-direct-messages-have-e)WHAT ARE PREDICTION MARKETS?
Manifold Markets is a play-money prediction market platform where you can bet on anything. Prediction markets allow you to bet on the outcome of future events.
Users can trade in a market to change the probability to reflect what they believe is the chance of the correct answer. As more users trade, the market converges to reflect the truth. Since these probabilities are public, anyone can use them to make more informed decisions!
I encourage everyone to add your own predictions to help them become more accurate.0
comments
Meta Layoffs
There's been media reports that Meta is preparing to layoff thousands of employees.
Here are some relevant markets:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/FRCassarino/will-meta-announce-layoffs-in-2022)[markets]WHAT ARE PREDICTION MARKETS?
Manifold Markets is a play-money prediction market platform where you can bet on anything. Prediction markets allow you to bet on the outcome of future events.
Users can trade in a market to change the probability to reflect what they believe is the chance of the correct answer. As more users trade, the market converges to reflect the truth. Since these probabilities are public, anyone can use them to make more informed decisions.
0
comments
US 2022 Midterms Tournament
2022 US Midterms Tournament
CLICK HERE TO SEE ALL MARKETS
Manifold is sponsoring a US Midterms tournament with a $1,000 USD prize pool. Show off your political forecasting skills, and win real USD if you're correct
How to Participate
Follow our 2022 US Midterms group
Predict on its markets and climb the leaderboard
Rules
The intent of this tournament is to reward individuals who are best at predicting the outcome of the 2022 Midterms.
USD prizes will be awarded to the top 10 traders on the leaderboard in proportion to profit earned in this group (excluding members of the Manifold team).
Only 1 account per person can trade in this market.
Don't collude with other people to inflate your or their profits.
E.g. don't transfer money to your friends account via betting a market artificially high/low and having them correct it.
All forms of trading are allowed (including API, limit orders).
Manifold reserves the right to modify rules, exclude participants, and other changes necessary to abide by the spirit of this tournament.
Forecasts
(https://manifold.markets/embed/TomShlomi/will-the-gop-control-the-us-senate)(https://manifold.markets/embed/ManifoldMarkets/democrats-go-down-at-least-one-gove)(https://manifold.markets/embed/BoltonBailey/will-democrats-maintain-control-of)(https://manifold.markets/embed/BoltonBailey/balance-of-power-in-us-congress-aft)See state by state breakdown here
[markets]0
comments
Who will replace Liz Truss?
Liz Truss just announced her resignation. Who will be the next UK PM?
Resolves YES if Boris Johnson becomes the next UK Prime Minister.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/20/world/europe/replacement-liz-truss.html
The leading candidates to replace Liz Truss as Britain’s prime minister include key figures from her cabinet as well as former rivals for leadership of the Conservative Party. Some analysts have even speculated that Boris Johnson, who resigned as prime minister in the summer, could make a return.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/kolotom99/who-will-be-the-next-uk-prime-minis)(https://manifold.markets/embed/FRCassarino/will-boris-johnson-be-the-next-uk-p)(https://manifold.markets/embed/njmkw/will-rishi-sunak-be-the-next-britis)(https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-penny-mordaunt-be-the-next-uk)FUTARCHY MARKETS:
[markets]3
comments
Will the Twitter Deal close?
Prediction Markets are now predicting that Elon's twitter deal will close!
(https://manifold.markets/embed/dreev/will-the-musk-twitter-deal-close)(https://manifold.markets/embed/SG/will-elon-musk-buy-twitter-this-yea)Some other interesting markets:
@/Heaffey/if-elon-musk-is-forced-to-buy-twitt @/BTE/will-a-delaware-judge-order-elon-mu
(https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/will-elon-musk-become-ceo-of-twitte/will-elon-musk-be-banned-from-twitt/will-elon-musk-acquire-twitter-by-j/will-elon-musk-pay-twitter-a-breaku/if-elon-musk-is-allowed-out-of-his/will-twitter-direct-messages-have-e)WHAT ARE PREDICTION MARKETS?
Manifold Markets is a play-money prediction market platform where you can bet on anything. Prediction markets allow you to bet on the outcome of future events.
Users can trade in a market to change the probability to reflect what they believe is the chance of the correct answer. As more users trade, the market converges to reflect the truth. Since these probabilities are public, anyone can use them to make more informed decisions!
I encourage everyone to add your own predictions to help them become more accurate.0
comments
Comments
No comments yet