Clarifications:
"Use in combat" excludes nuclear tests and accidental detonations that do not produce casualties. If a detonation is accidental but produces casualties and/or property damage and is seen as an act of war by other nations/groups, then it counts. "Demonstration detonations" designed to intimidate would also count.
"Next year" means the 365 days following the detonation of the first nuclear weapon.
"War-related injuries" includes direct combat related fatalities (from gun shots, drone strikes, nuclear blasts, etc.) but also indirect fatalities from things like starvation, freezing to death (from lack of heating), etc.
Resolves N/A if a nuclear weapon is not used in combat prior to the end of 2023.
Oct 6, 1:53pm: Question wording changed to "end of 2023" to prevent ambiguity.
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Note that this market includes a different definition of use "in combat" than my other market. In particular, "demonstration detonations" are included here but not there. (I would change this market to use the same definition as the latter, but too many people have bet here already for me to feel comfortable changing the resolution criteria.)
I'd be inclined to bet more on this, but the wording is unfortunately unclear. There's an implied but not explicit "resolves to N/A if a nuclear weapon is not used by the specified time", and the end date is the beginning of 2025, despite "prior to 2023" implying that the nuke must be used before the end of this year, and the end of the condition time ought to be the end of next year. Perhaps S G meant "prior to the end of 2023"?
More clarification would incentivize me to bid more.
"Use in combat" excludes nuclear tests and accidental detonations that do not produce casualties. If a detonation is accidental but produces casualties and/or property damage and is seen as an act of war by other nations/groups, then it counts.
would "demonstration detonations" like what's mentioned in https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1575135750093422592#m count?