If a nuclear weapon is used in combat before the end of 2023, will more than 20M die from war-related injuries over the next year?
21
720Ṁ2963
resolved May 9
Resolved
N/A

Clarifications:

  • "Use in combat" excludes nuclear tests and accidental detonations that do not produce casualties. If a detonation is accidental but produces casualties and/or property damage and is seen as an act of war by other nations/groups, then it counts. "Demonstration detonations" designed to intimidate would also count.

  • "Next year" means the 365 days following the detonation of the first nuclear weapon.

  • "War-related injuries" includes direct combat related fatalities (from gun shots, drone strikes, nuclear blasts, etc.) but also indirect fatalities from things like starvation, freezing to death (from lack of heating), etc.

  • Resolves N/A if a nuclear weapon is not used in combat prior to the end of 2023.

Oct 6, 1:53pm: Question wording changed to "end of 2023" to prevent ambiguity.

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