Will a nuclear weapon be launched in combat in 2022?

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resolved Jan 6

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Market resolves to YES in the event that a nuclear weapon is confirmed to be launched for combat, non-testing purposes before Jan 1, 2023, anywhere in the world.

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17 Comments

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predicted NO

Time to resolve this NO?

bought Ṁ50 of NO

Similar question:

I think mine is clearer because of "detonated" vs "launched" (see discussion in https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-launched-i-015e44ed91f5#jGdoWZDGD4845392vgWl, not all nuclear weapons are launched)

predicted NO

Less likely and resolves sooner:

predicted YES

This is one bet I REALLY don't wan't to win.

@littlebubulle You won't

predicted YES

@MP I PROBABLY won't. My current estimate is around 6%.

predicted NO

@littlebubulle My read that this was a joke that if you win, we'll all lose.

@NathanpmYoung Nope. I am just being cocky.

bought Ṁ17 of YES

related market with a EOY 2023 end date: https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-launched-i-015e44ed91f5

bought Ṁ100 of YES

4% seemed low, given the possibility of a desperate Russia employing a tactical nuclear weapon.

predicted NO

@EndoviorE I'm curious why you would rate Russia's odds of doing that higher than minuscule. I'm guessing you're assigning more weight to the "Putin's in a spiral and his advisors won't/can't check him" theory? Cause I gotta say, the evidence for that (and that it would lead as far as nuclear weapon deployment) seems . . . thin on the ground, really.

predicted YES

@AndrewHartman If anything, Putin's been ramping up his rhetoric (eg: his recent speech on the Great Northern War, and threats to the Baltic nations), it seems that the Kremlin is undeterred by the current course of the war, and are in fact planning more wars in the near future. As it seems that no one cares about Russian nuclear threats any more, I would find it unsurprising if they escalated to the use of tactical nuclear weapons to show how serious they are, especially if they happen to be losing at the time. My probability on this one is probably closer to 25%; there's plenty of 2022 left, which is more than enough time for things to get worse. I'd certainly rank this higher than Putin being the victim of a coup, given his security precautions and the overt silencing of dissenting voices. For reference, I've also got M$ on https://manifold.markets/DanielFilan/will-russia-attack-another-country for which the clock is admittedly running down... but between Moldova, Georgia, and targets of opportunity in the Baltic, there's still opportunities for that one to pay out, and I'm in no hurry to sell.

predicted NO

@EndoviorE That's kinda wild. I've got distinctly different priors here. But my pessimistic bet on the S&P just paid off, so I'm willing to put some mana up against yours.

predicted YES

@AndrewHartman Fair. I wouldn't at all be unhappy to be wrong about this one!

bought Ṁ20 of NO

🤝

bought Ṁ20 of NO

Compare this to metaculus's forecasts back in march, which gave <3% if you add up chance that US launches and chance that Russia launches https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/10439/russia-ukraine-conflict-forecasting-nuclear-risk-in-2022/ 6% is way higher than 3%. Also, you'd normally expect that apocalypse bets to have *lower* implied probability compared to forecasts. Has the world gotten more nukey since Feb/March? I think it's gotten less. Are y'all just hedging?

bought Ṁ50 of NO

From the outside view, there has been a less than 2% chance of nuclear weapons in combat for every year since nuclear weapons were invented. 8% is overvalued.