Will a nuclear weapon be launched in combat in 2022?
3%
chance
Market resolves to YES in the event that a nuclear weapon is confirmed to be launched for combat, non-testing purposes before Jan 1, 2023, anywhere in the world.
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jack avatar
Jack
bought Ṁ50 of NO
Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting
is predicting NO at 3%
littlebubulle avatar
littlebubulle
is predicting YES at 6%
MP avatar
littlebubulle avatar
littlebubulle
is predicting YES at 3%
NathanpmYoung avatar
Nathan Young
is predicting NO at 5%
MP avatar
AndyMartin avatar
Andy Martin
bought Ṁ17 of YES
Endovior avatar
Endovior
bought Ṁ100 of YES
4% seemed low, given the possibility of a desperate Russia employing a tactical nuclear weapon.
AndrewHartman avatar
Andrew Hartman
is predicting NO at 8%
@EndoviorE I'm curious why you would rate Russia's odds of doing that higher than minuscule. I'm guessing you're assigning more weight to the "Putin's in a spiral and his advisors won't/can't check him" theory? Cause I gotta say, the evidence for that (and that it would lead as far as nuclear weapon deployment) seems . . . thin on the ground, really.
Endovior avatar
Endovior
is predicting YES at 7%
@AndrewHartman If anything, Putin's been ramping up his rhetoric (eg: his recent speech on the Great Northern War, and threats to the Baltic nations), it seems that the Kremlin is undeterred by the current course of the war, and are in fact planning more wars in the near future. As it seems that no one cares about Russian nuclear threats any more, I would find it unsurprising if they escalated to the use of tactical nuclear weapons to show how serious they are, especially if they happen to be losing at the time. My probability on this one is probably closer to 25%; there's plenty of 2022 left, which is more than enough time for things to get worse. I'd certainly rank this higher than Putin being the victim of a coup, given his security precautions and the overt silencing of dissenting voices. For reference, I've also got M$ on https://manifold.markets/DanielFilan/will-russia-attack-another-country for which the clock is admittedly running down... but between Moldova, Georgia, and targets of opportunity in the Baltic, there's still opportunities for that one to pay out, and I'm in no hurry to sell.
AndrewHartman avatar
Andrew Hartman
is predicting NO at 8%
@EndoviorE That's kinda wild. I've got distinctly different priors here. But my pessimistic bet on the S&P just paid off, so I'm willing to put some mana up against yours.
Endovior avatar
Endovior
is predicting YES at 5%
@AndrewHartman Fair. I wouldn't at all be unhappy to be wrong about this one!
SymbolProject avatar
Symbol Project
bought Ṁ20 of NO
🤝
Sinclair avatar
Sinclair Chen
bought Ṁ20 of NO
Compare this to metaculus's forecasts back in march, which gave <3% if you add up chance that US launches and chance that Russia launches https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/10439/russia-ukraine-conflict-forecasting-nuclear-risk-in-2022/ 6% is way higher than 3%. Also, you'd normally expect that apocalypse bets to have *lower* implied probability compared to forecasts. Has the world gotten more nukey since Feb/March? I think it's gotten less. Are y'all just hedging?
PeterBerggren avatar
Peter Berggren
bought Ṁ50 of NO
From the outside view, there has been a less than 2% chance of nuclear weapons in combat for every year since nuclear weapons were invented. 8% is overvalued.