This question will resolve as YES if a nuclear weapon is detonated with countervalue targeting after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2023. Otherwise NO.

Countervalue targeting is "the targeting of an opponent's assets that are of value but not actually a military threat, such as cities and civilian populations". Compared to nuclear strikes against counterforce targets or battlefield targets, countervalue nuclear strikes would typically cause both many more immediate fatalities and much more smoke (increasing the risk of nuclear winter).

Resolution details (mostly copied from Metaculus):

• A detonation is considered countervalue for the purpose of this question if credible media reporting does not widely consider a military or industrial target as the primary target of the attack (except in the case of strikes on capital cities, which will automatically be considered countervalue for this question even if credible media report that the rationale for the strike was disabling command and control structures).

• Nuclear detonations here include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations.

I will use Metaculus decisions on https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7461/total-countervalue-detonations-by-2050/ and related questions to determine whether a nuclear weapon detonation counts as countervalue.

Oct 6, 9:55pm: Will a countervalue nuclear detonation occur in 2022? (Countervalue = targeting civilian populations, not military targets) → Will a countervalue (non-military target) nuclear detonation occur in 2022?