If a nuclear weapon detonates in a NATO country in 2022, will >3 million Americans die of Nuclear war?
8
203
Ṁ260Ṁ120
resolved Mar 22
Resolved
N/A1D
1W
1M
ALL
CONDITIONAL on this market resolving to YES:
resolves to N/A otherwise.
---
Resolves to YES if >3 million Americans die of nuclear war (in USA territory, within 3 months of the initial strike in NATO).
Resolves to NO if the conditional market resolves to YES, but >3 million Americans don't die of nuclear war (in USA territory, within 3 months of the initial strike in NATO).
---
In the event of needing a body count, I'll refer to whichever estimates are available. If none are available I'll try to make a reasonable guess. For semi-attributable and delayed-attributable (e.g. some people starving due to infrastructure loss) I'll try to make inclusions if it seems obvious those deaths would not have happened without the nuclear exchange.
Get Ṁ200 play money
More related questions
Related questions
Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2050?
44% chance
Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2040?
18% chance
Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2030?
22% chance
Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 10,000 deaths in 2024?
3% chance
Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths in 2024?
2% chance
Will a nuclear weapon detonation cause at least 1 fatality, by end of 2024?
3% chance
Will a nuclear weapon cause over 1,000 deaths in 2024?
1% chance
Will nuclear weapons cause over 100,000 fatalities in 2024?
1% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in the year 2030?
16% chance
Will nuclear war cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?
9% chance