If a nuclear weapon detonates in a NATO country in 2022, will >3 million Americans die of Nuclear war?
8
120Ṁ259resolved Mar 22
Resolved
N/A1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
CONDITIONAL on this market resolving to YES:
resolves to N/A otherwise.
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Resolves to YES if >3 million Americans die of nuclear war (in USA territory, within 3 months of the initial strike in NATO).
Resolves to NO if the conditional market resolves to YES, but >3 million Americans don't die of nuclear war (in USA territory, within 3 months of the initial strike in NATO).
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In the event of needing a body count, I'll refer to whichever estimates are available. If none are available I'll try to make a reasonable guess. For semi-attributable and delayed-attributable (e.g. some people starving due to infrastructure loss) I'll try to make inclusions if it seems obvious those deaths would not have happened without the nuclear exchange.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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