The market is conditional on a nuclear weapon being launched for combat, non-testing purposes before Jan 1st, 2023, anywhere in the world (referred to as CONDITION).

It resolves to YES if a nuclear weapon strikes the territories of any NATO countries in 2022 (NOT including test-launches).
It resolves to NO if CONDITION is met, but no nuclear weapon strikes the territory of a NATO country in 2022 (NOT including test-launches).
It resolves to N/A if CONDITION isn't met.